ArticleTobacco control2026
Effect of a minimum floor price law for tobacco products on tobacco sales in Oakland, California, USA: a synthetic difference-in-differences analysis.
Article in Tobacco control, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- E-Cigarette Directory Laws, Sales, and Product Availability From 3 Early-Adopting US States.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Associations between smoking-induced deprivation, cigarette purchase price, and coupon use among California adults ages 18-64, 2022-2023.Preventive medicine reports · 2026Article
- Does living near a tobacco retailer impact the efficacy of smoking cessation treatments?: Analysis from a randomized trial.Addictive behaviors reports · 2025Article
- Effect of tobacco sales bans on retail sales in Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach, California, USA: a synthetic difference-in-differences analysis.Tobacco control · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn May 2020, Oakland became the most populous city in California to implement a minimum floor price law (MFPL), requiring tobacco retailers to sell cigarettes and cigars at $8 or more per pack/package. Policy enforcement began in August 2020.
methodsWe estimated changes in cigarette and cigar prices and unit sales for Oakland versus a matched comparator during the first 20 months following MFPL implementation using a synthetic difference-in-differences approach. We estimated outcome changes overall and by lower-priced (<$8) versus higher-priced (≥$8) segments based on pre-MFPL prices. We also assessed retailer compliance with the MFPL. We further estimated cross-border shopping as a means of price increase avoidance and substitution to electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products as alternative consumer responses to the MFPL.
resultsRetailer compliance was high for cigarettes (97.5%) but extremely low for cigars (7.4%). Lower-priced cigarettes in Oakland exhibited: increased median price per pack of 9.0%, a decline in mean monthly sales of 25.2%, and no evidence of significant cross-border shopping (-1.2%) following MFPL enforcement. Lower-priced cigars in Oakland experienced no price change, yet a large sales decline post-enforcement (-58.8%), with a partially-offsetting increase in cross-border shopping (11.0%) post-enforcement. We observed no significant product substitution to higher-priced cigarettes or cigars nor to ENDS or NRT products.
conclusionsOakland's MFPL produced an aggregate decline in cigarette sales of 15%. MFPLs hold promise as a complement to tobacco taxation for reducing tobacco use, especially in localities that pre-empt local tobacco taxation.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.