ArticleBMC gastroenterology2024
Temporal trends in disability adjusted life year and mortality for colorectal cancer attributable to a high red meat diet in China from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.
Article in BMC gastroenterology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Heatmap-Based Risk-Benefit Assessment of Traditional and Processed Meat Products.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Article
- Global burden of disease for colorectal cancer due to diet low in whole grains from 1990 to 2021 and its projections to 2050: analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- Global burden, inequality, and frontier gaps of autism spectrum disorder disability in adolescents and young adults, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis of the GBD 2021 study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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Abstract
backgroundHigh red meat consumption is a main modifiable risk factor for colorectal cancer mortality (CRC), but its attributable disease burden remains unclear in China. We aimed to analyze the temporal trends in CRC deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high red meat consumption in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the disease burden in the next 15 years.
methodsData was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). In addition, the age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on CRC mortality. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was utilized to predict the disease burden in 2022-2036. We also compared the CRC burden attributed to high red meat in China with 204 countries worldwide.
resultsThe results showed that the number of CRC deaths in China due to high red meat consumption increased nearly 2.5 times, from 17,608 (95% UI: -3 to 36,613) in 1990 to 43,580 (95% UI: -16 to 92,083) in 2021. Male CRC deaths exhibited a more pronounced increase, rising from 9,800 in 1990 to 27,600 in 2021. Additionally, the number of DALYs increased from 518,213 (95% UI: -105,107 to 1,074,174) in 1990 to 1,091,788 (95% UI: -509 to 2,295,779) in 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis confirmed that the AAPC in ASDR and ASMR was - 0.20 (95% CI: -0.40 ∼ 0.00) and - 0.30 (95% CI: -0.40 ~ -0.10). When age, period, and cohort effects were examined as the reference group, the risk of CRC was found to increase with age. However, women experienced a marked decline in both period and cohort effects compared to men.
conclusionsCompared to global levels, the burden in China is heavier. In terms of mortality or DALY standardized rates, Chinese women show a similar downward trend to the overall trend, while Chinese men show a striking upward trend. This study provides valuable insights into enhancing CRC prevention and improving dietary patterns in China.
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