Prospective life cycle assessment of climate and biodiversity impacts of meat-based and plant-forward meals: A case study of Indonesian and German meal options.

The emerging field of prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) offers opportunities for evaluating the environmental impacts of possible future consumption shifts. One such shift involves a transition from meat-based to plant-forward diets, acknowledged to mitigate environmental impacts of the food system under present day conditions. Current diets are often meat intensive ("meat-based"), whilst "plant-forward" diets include mainly plant-based foods, encompassing flexitarian, vegetarian, and vegan diets. Here we illustrate the application of pLCA in a case study of meal options, implementing shared socio-economic pathway scenarios in the LCA background system to represent future production conditions. We assess the climate footprints and land-based biodiversity footprints of a typical meat-based meal in Germany and Indonesia compared to a plant-forward meal in both countries (i.e., four meals), now and in 2050. Our findings show that the plant-forward alternative maintains a lower impact per serving in all future scenarios. At the same time, the reduction in impact for the meat-based meals is more pronounced in future scenarios due to shifts in the agricultural system. Our findings highlight the importance of supply-side measures to produce lower-impact ingredients, complementing demand-side interventions to reshape food consumption. Results are further evaluated in cultural and nutritional contexts, highlighting the practical decision-making constraints faced by consumers. We find potential "leakage" effects in calories and nutrition when choosing a lower-impact, plant-forward meal. These leakage effects should be considered in future studies seeking to evaluate the environmental implications of meal substitutions in the context of broader dietary requirements.