ArticleNature human behaviour2025
Brain network dynamics predict moments of surprise across contexts.
Article in Nature human behaviour, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- The dual interpretation of edge time series: Time-varying connectivity versus statistical interaction.iScience · 2026Article
- Flexible brain state engagement predicts cognitive control transdiagnostically.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Real-Time Functional Lesion Simulation in Connectomics: Rapid Sensitivity Analysis of Neural Pathways via Traversal Tree-Correlated Cuts.Interdisciplinary sciences, computational life sciences · 2026Article
- Interpretability of automated machine learning methods in psychological research: A tutorial with AutoGluon in Python.Behavior research methods · 2025Article
- The neural underpinnings of aphantasia: a case study of identical twins.Cerebral cortex (New York, N.Y. : 1991) · 2025Article
- The Anterior Insula Processes a Time-Resolved Subjective Risk Prediction Error.The Journal of neuroscience : the official journal of the Society for Neuroscience · 2025Article
- The Neural Underpinnings of Aphantasia: A Case Study of Identical Twins.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Predicting surprise across contexts.Nature human behaviour · 2025Article
- Higher BMI and extraversion are associated with greater button-press force in a lab setting.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Mapping high-amplitude fMRI edge time series events across space and time.Imaging neuroscience (Cambridge, Mass.)Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We experience surprise when reality conflicts with our expectations. When we encounter such expectation violations in psychological tasks and daily life, are we experiencing completely different forms of surprise? Or is surprise a fundamental psychological process with shared neural bases across contexts? To address this question, we identified a brain network model, the surprise edge-fluctuation-based predictive model (EFPM), whose regional interaction dynamics measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) predicted surprise in an adaptive learning task. The same model generalized to predict surprise as a separate group of individuals watched suspenseful basketball games and as a third group watched videos violating psychological expectations. The surprise EFPM also uniquely predicts surprise, capturing expectation violations better than models built from other brain networks, fMRI measures and behavioural metrics. These results suggest that shared neurocognitive processes underlie surprise across contexts and that distinct experiences can be translated into the common space of brain dynamics.
Indexed as
Identifiers
39715875What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.