Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39714528›Full record

ArticleOecologia2024

Immigration hides the decline caused by an anthropogenic trap and drives the spectacular increase of a mobile predator.

Haruki Natsukawa, Giacomo Tavecchia, Óscar Frías, Fabrizio Sergio, Fernando Hiraldo, Guillermo Blanco

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Oecologia, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Winter Ecology of the Hen Harrier,Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Haruki NatsukawaFaculty of Agriculture, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan. raptorecologist@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7589-0947
Giacomo TavecchiaAnimal Demography and Ecology Unit, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), M. Marques 21, 07190, Esporles, Spain.
Óscar FríasDepartment of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, 41013, Seville, Spain.
Fabrizio SergioDepartment of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana-CSIC, Seville, Spain.
Fernando HiraldoDepartment of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana-CSIC, Seville, Spain.
Guillermo BlancoDepartment of Evolutionary Ecology, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, José Gutiérrez Abascal 2, 28006, Madrid, Spain.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Accurate identification of decreasing trends is a prerequisite for successful conservation, but can be challenging when immigration compensates local declines in abundance. Here, we show that a potential declining trend driven by low vital rates was overridden and converted into a spectacular increase by massive immigration into the population of a semi-social raptor, the black kite Milvus migrans, breeding in a highly contaminated area near a major landfill. Immigration was promoted by a growing food-base of live prey, coupled with the attraction exerted by the progressive gathering of a large flock of non-breeders at the area, resulting in an "attraction spiral" that lured large numbers of breeders to settle into a contaminated population incapable of self-sustenance. Immigration was so prevalent that, in little more than a decade, over 95% of the original population was substituted by immigrants, which showed the enormous potential of immigration as a rescue mechanism. At the same time, immigration may hide cryptic threats, as shown here, and expose some species, especially group-living mobile ones, to rapid attraction to anthropogenic subsidies, whose potential role as evolutionary traps is well known. The dynamics exposed here may become increasingly common, affecting many other species in our growingly anthropogenic world. Our results remark the often overlooked importance of immigration in ecology, evolution, and conservation as a key player for population dynamics and their more realistic forecast.

Indexed as

Population DynamicsAnimal MigrationAnimalsFalconiformesPredatory BehaviorCompensatory immigrationConspecific attractionEcological trapEvolutionary trapRescue effect

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.