ArticleAnnals of surgery open : perspectives of surgical history, education, and clinical approaches2024
Nomograms Predicting Survival, Recurrence and Beneficiary Identification of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Treatment-naïve Patients with Rectal Cancer who Underwent Upfront Curative Resection: A multi-institutional study.
Article in Annals of surgery open : perspectives of surgical history, education, and clinical approaches, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Comment on: second recurrence after R0 resection of recurrent colorectal cancer: patterns and implications for surveillance.International journal of clinical oncology · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Objective: To create and validate nomograms predicting overall survival and recurrence in treatment-naïve rectal cancer (RC) patients who underwent upfront surgery. Background: Although multidisciplinary treatment is standard for locally advanced RC, understanding surgical efficacy is important for determining indications for perioperative adjuvant therapy. Methods: RC patients who underwent upfront surgery at the Japanese Society for Cancer of the Colon and Rectum institutions were analyzed. A training cohort (n = 1925) of treatment-naïve patients who underwent surgery between 2007 and 2008 was analyzed to construct prognostic models predicting postoperative survival and recurrence. Discrimination and calibration were performed using an external validation cohort (n = 2957; Japanese colorectal cancer registry, procedures in 2005-2006). Effects of adjuvant chemotherapy on survival were evaluated based on nomogram prediction and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data (n = 10,482; upfront surgery for RC in 2010-2015). Results: In the training cohort, age predicted survival, venous invasion predicted recurrence, and sex, tumor location, histological type, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen, invasion depth, lymphatic invasion, positive radial margin, and numbers of metastatic nodes and examined nodes predicted both. Internal and external validated Harrell's C-index values were respectively 0.77 and 0.75 for survival and 0.75 and 0.74 for recurrence. RC patients who underwent upfront surgery in the SEER database were stratified into 3 risk levels by nomogram score. Adjuvant chemotherapy did not improve 5-year survival in low-risk patients, but did so for middle-risk (62.4% Conclusion: These nomograms could predict survival and recurrence after upfront curative resection of RC and identify cases expected to benefit more from adjuvant chemotherapy.
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