ArticleJournal of orthopaedic surgery and research2024
Development and validation of a three-dimensional nomogram prediction model for knee osteoarthritis in middle-aged population.
Article in Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Health-related quality of life and influencing factors in osteoporosis patients: A cross-sectional study based on the EQ-5D-3L Scale in China.Turkish journal of physical medicine and rehabilitation · 2026Article
- Development and validation of a simple nomogram for predicting knee osteoarthritis using movement evoked pain in a community setting.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Factors influencing clinical outcomes in patients with knee osteoarthritis undergoing arthroscopic treatment.American journal of translational research · 2026Article
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Abstract
objectivesThis study aims to identify predictors of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) risk in middle-aged population, construct and validate a nomogram for KOA in this demographic.
methodsFrom June to December 2020, we conducted a cross-sectional survey on 5,527 middle-aged individuals from Changsha and Zhangjiajie cities in Hunan Province, selected using a stratified multi-stage random sampling method. Data collection involved a structured questionnaire encompassing general demographic, physical condition, and lifestyle behaviors dimensions. The dataset was randomly split into a training set (n = 3868) and a validation set (n = 1659) at a 7:3 ratio via computerized randomization. We analyzed the prevalence of self-reported KOA and identified its influencing factors using logistic regression. A nomogram was constructed based on these "three-dimensional" factors. Subsequent validation was conducted, and the nomogram's performance was further evaluated through ROC curves, C-index, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and calibration curves.
resultsThe self-reported prevalence of KOA in the middle-aged population was 11.4% (632/5527). The risk factor with the greatest impact is: diagnosed with osteoporosis(95% CI 2.269-3.568, OR = 2.845), followed by age between 51 to 60 years (95% CI 2.176-3.151, OR = 2.619), diagnosed with hypertension(95% CI 1.633-2.499, OR = 2.02), diagnosed with diabetes (OR = 1.689), ethnic Han Chinese (OR = 1.673), exercise according to physical condition (OR = 1.643), pay attention to keeping the knee joint warm (OR = 1.535), eating habits are mainly light vegetables (OR = 1.374), male gender (OR = 1.343), drink occasionally in small amounts (OR = 1.286); a higher level of education (OR = 0.477) and frequently or always apply an external or plaster to relieve symptoms after knee discomfort (OR = 0.377; OR = 0.385) are protective factors. The C-index of the training set model was 0.8107 (95% CI: 0.8102-0.8111), with a statistically significant area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.818), and the calibration curve showed a good fit. The C-index for the validation set was 0.8124 (95% CI: 0.8109-0.8140), with an AUC of 0.812. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test resulted in a P-value of 0.46 (P ≥ 0.05)indicating good calibration of the model.
conclusionThe three dimensions nomogram generated in this study was a valid and easy-to-use tool for assessing the risk of KOA in middle-aged population, and helped healthcare professionals to screen the high-risk population.
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