Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39706205›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Infectious diseases2025

Serotype distribution of remaining invasive pneumococcal disease after extensive use of ten-valent and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (the PSERENADE project): a global surveillance analysis.

Maria Garcia Quesada, Meagan E Peterson, Julia C Bennett, Kyla Hayford, Scott L Zeger, Yangyupei Yang, Marissa K Hetrich, Daniel R Feikin, Adam L Cohen, Anne von Gottberg and 61 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 49 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
49citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

49 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Trial
  5. Review
  6. Serotype distribution ofHuman vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Severe invasive pneumococcal disease beyond current vaccination recommendations: implications for higher-valency vaccines.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
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  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Genomic epidemiology ofMicrobial genomics · 2026
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

71 authors.

Maria Garcia QuesadaJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA. Electronic address: mgarci64@jhmi.edu.
Meagan E PetersonJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Julia C BennettJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Kyla HayfordJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Scott L ZegerJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Yangyupei YangJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Marissa K HetrichJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Daniel R FeikinWHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Adam L CohenWHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Anne von GottbergCentre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Mark van der LindenReference Laboratory for Streptococci, Department of Medical Microbiology, University Hospital RWTH Aachen, Aachen, Germany.
Nina M van SorgeMedical Microbiology and Infection Prevention, Netherlands Reference Laboratory for Bacterial Meningitis, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Lucia H de OliveiraPan American Health Organization, WHO, Washington, DC, USA.
Sara de MiguelCIBER de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid, Spain; Epidemiology Department, Dirección General de Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain.
Inci YildirimDepartment of Pediatrics, Yale New Haven Children's Hospital, New Haven, CT, USA.
Didrik F VestrheimDepartment of Public Health, Ministry of Health and Care Services, Oslo, Norway.
Jennifer R VeraniDivision of Global Health Protection, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nairobi, Kenya; Division of Bacterial Diseases, National Center for Immunizations and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Emmanuelle VaronNational Reference Centre for Pneumococci, Data Research Department, Intercommunal Hospital of Créteil, Créteil, France.
Palle Valentiner-BranthInfectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Georgina TzanakakiNational Meningitis Reference Laboratory, Department of Public Health Policy, School of Public Health, University of West Attica, Athens, Greece.
Nadja Sinkovec ZorkoCommunicable Diseases Centre, National Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Lena P SetchanovaUniversity Multiprofile Hospital for Active Treatment Saint Ivan Rilski, Clinical Microbiology Laboratory, Sofia, Bulgaria.
Fatima SerhanWHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Kevin J ScottBacterial Respiratory Infection Service, Scottish Microbiology Reference Laboratory, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Glasgow, UK.
J Anthony ScottEpidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Coast, Kilifi, Kenya.
Camelia SavulescuEpidemiology Department, Epiconcept, Paris, France.
Larisa SavrasovaInstitute of Public Health, Riga Stradiņš University, Riga, Latvia.
Rita ReyburnMurdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
Kazunori OishiToyama Institute of Health, Toyama, Japan.
J Pekka NuortiDepartment of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland; Health Sciences Unit, Faculty of Social Sciences, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.
Daniela NapoliClinical Bacteriology Service, Department of Bacteriology, National Institute for Infectious Diseases (INEI-ANLIS) "Dr Carlos G Malbrán", Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Jason M MwendaWHO Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo.
Carmen Muñoz-AlmagroCIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain; Medicine Department, International University of Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain; Molecular Microbiology Department, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain.
Eva MorfeldtDepartment of Microbiology Public Health Agency of Sweden, Solna, Sweden.
Kimberley McMahonCentre for Disease Control, Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, NT, Australia.
Allison McGeerToronto Invasive Bacterial Diseases Network and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Lucia Mad'arováNational Reference Centre for Pneumococcal and Haemophilus Diseases, Regional Authority of Public Health, Banská Bystrica, Slovakia.
Grant A MackenzieNew Vaccines Group, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Maria Eugenia LeónCentral Laboratory of Public Health, Asunción, Paraguay.
Shamez N LadhaniImmunisation and Countermeasures Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK.
Karl G KristinssonDepartment of Clinical Microbiology, Landspitali-The National University Hospital, Reykjavik, Iceland.
Jana KozakovaNational Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic.
Jackie KleynhansCentre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Nicola P KleinVaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, CA, USA.
James D KellnerDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Calgary and Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada.
Sanjay JayasingheNational Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance and Discipline of Child and Adolescent Health, Children's Hospital Westmead Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Westmead, NSW, Australia.
Pak-Leung HoDepartment of Microbiology and Carol Yu Centre for Infection, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Markus HiltySwiss National Reference Centre for Invasive Pneumococci, Institute for Infectious Diseases, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Marcella A Harker-JonesArctic Investigations Program, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Anchorage, AK, USA.
Laura L HammittJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Coast, Kilifi, Kenya.
Marta Grgic-VitekCommunicable Diseases Centre, National Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Charlotte GilkisonEpidemiology Team, Institute of Environmental Science and Research, Porirua, New Zealand.
Ryan GierkeDivision of Bacterial Diseases, National Center for Immunizations and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Neil FrenchInstitute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi.
Idrissa DiawaraInfectious Diseases Research Unit, Mohammed VI Center for Research & Innovation (CM6RI), Rabat, Morocco; Mohammed VI University of Sciences and Health, Mohammed VI Higher Institute of Biosciences and Biotechnologies (UM6SS), Casablanca, Morocco.
Stefanie DesmetDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium; National Reference Centre for Streptococcus Pneumoniae, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
Philippe De WalsDepartment of Social and Preventive Medicine, Laval University, Québec, QC, Canada.
Tine DalbyInfectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Bacteria, Parasites and Fungi, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Ron DaganThe Shraga Segal Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Genetics, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel.
Mary CorcoranIrish Meningitis and Sepsis Reference Laboratory, Children's Health Ireland at Temple Street, Dublin, Ireland; Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.
Edoardo ColzaniEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.
Grettel Chanto ChacónCosta Rican Institute for Research and Teaching in Nutrition and Health, Tres Ríos, Costa Rica.
Jesús CastillaCIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain; Public Health Institute of Navarre, Pamplona, Spain; Navarre Institute for Health Research, Pamplona, Spain.
Romina CamilliDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Italian National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy.
Michelle AngNational Public Health Laboratory, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore.
Krow AmpofoDivision of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, University of Utah Health Sciences Center, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Samanta C G AlmeidaNational Laboratory for Meningitis and Pneumococcal Infections, Center of Bacteriology, Institute Adolfo Lutz, São Paulo, Brazil.
Pedro AlarconInstituto de Salud Pública de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Katherine L O'BrienJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Maria Deloria KnollJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
PSERENADE Team

Funding

Infectious Diseases Across Scales Training ProgramT32AI138952 · NIAID · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI Jacobus de Roode · 2019 to 2026
$1.8M
Gates Foundation INV-010429NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI138952World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWidespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has reduced vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). We describe the serotype distribution of IPD after extensive use of ten-valent PCV (PCV10; Synflorix, GSK) and 13-valent PCV (PCV13; Prevenar 13, Pfizer) globally.

methodsIPD data were obtained from surveillance sites participating in the WHO-commissioned Pneumococcal Serotype Replacement and Distribution Estimation (PSERENADE) project that exclusively used PCV10 or PCV13 (hereafter PCV10 and PCV13 sites, respectively) in their national immunisation programmes and had primary series uptake of at least 70%. Serotype distribution was estimated for IPD cases occurring 5 years or more after PCV10 or PCV13 introduction (ie, the mature period when the serotype distribution had stabilised) using multinomial Dirichlet regression, stratified by PCV product and age group (<5 years, 5-17 years, 18-49 years, and ≥50 years).

findingsThe analysis included cases occurring primarily between 2015 and 2018 from 42 PCV13 sites (63 362 cases) and 12 PCV10 sites (6806 cases) in 41 countries. Sites were mostly high income (36 [67%] of 54) and used three-dose or four-dose booster schedules (44 [81%]). At PCV10 sites, PCV10 serotypes caused 10·0% (95% CI 6·3-12·9) of IPD cases in children younger than 5 years and 15·5% (13·4-19·3) of cases in adults aged 50 years or older, while PCV13 serotypes caused 52·1% (49·2-65·4) and 45·6% (40·0-50·0), respectively. At PCV13 sites, PCV13 serotypes caused 26·4% (21·3-30·0) of IPD cases in children younger than 5 years and 29·5% (27·5-33·0) of cases in adults aged 50 years or older. The leading serotype at PCV10 sites was 19A in children younger than 5 years (30·6% [95% CI 18·2-43·1]) and adults aged 50 years or older (14·8% [11·9-17·8]). Serotype 3 was a top-ranked serotype, causing about 9% of cases in children younger than 5 years and 14% in adults aged 50 years or older at both PCV10 and PCV13 sites. Across all age and PCV10 or PCV13 strata, the proportion of IPD targeted by higher-valency PCVs beyond PCV13 was 4·1-9·7% for PCV15, 13·5-36·0% for PCV20, 29·9-53·8% for PCV21, 15·6-42·0% for PCV24, and 31·5-50·1% for PCV25. All top-ten ranked non-PCV13 serotypes are included in at least one higher-valency PCV.

interpretationThe proportion of IPD due to serotypes included in PCVs in use was low in mature PCV10 and PCV13 settings. Serotype distribution differed between PCV10 and PCV13 sites and age groups. Higher-valency PCVs target most remaining IPD and are expected to extend impact.

fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation as part of the WHO Pneumococcal Vaccines Technical Coordination Project.

Indexed as

Pneumococcal InfectionsPneumococcal VaccinesSerogroupStreptococcus pneumoniaeAdolescentAdultAgedChildChild, PreschoolFemaleGlobal HealthHumansImmunization ProgramsInfantMaleMiddle Aged10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine13-valent pneumococcal vaccinePneumococcal VaccinesVaccines, Conjugate

Identifiers

PMID39706205
PMCPMC11947070

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.