SynthesisEpidemics2025
Transmission models of respiratory infections in carceral settings: A systematic review.
Synthesis in Epidemics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Prisons of Latin America and the Caribbean: A Critical Reflection on Structural Challenges and Gaps.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe prevention and control of infectious disease outbreaks in carceral settings face unique challenges. Transmission modeling is a powerful tool for understanding and addressing these challenges, but reviews of modeling work in this context pre-date the proliferation of outbreaks in jails and prisons during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We conducted a systematic review of studies using transmission models of respiratory infections in carceral settings before and during the pandemic.
methodsWe searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, and PsycInfo to identify studies published between 1970 and 2024 that modeled transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in carceral settings. We extracted information on the diseases, populations, and settings modeled; approaches used for parameterizing models and simulating transmission; outcomes of interest and techniques for model calibration, validation, and sensitivity analyses; and types, impacts, and ethical aspects of modeled interventions.
resultsForty-six studies met eligibility criteria, with transmission dynamics of tuberculosis modeled in 24 (52 %), SARS-CoV-2 in 20 (43 %), influenza in one (2 %), and varicella-zoster virus in one (2 %). Carceral facilities in the United States were the most common focus (15, 33 %), followed by Brazil (8, 17 %). Most studies (36, 80 %) used compartmental models (vs. individual- or agent-based). Tuberculosis studies typically modeled transmission within a single facility, while most SARS-CoV-2 studies simulated transmission in multiple places, including between carceral and community settings. Half of studies fit models to epidemiological data; three validated model predictions. Models were used to estimate past or potential future intervention impacts in 32 (70 %) studies, forecast the status quo (without changing conditions) in six (13 %), and examine only theoretical aspects of transmission in eight (17 %). Interventions commonly involved testing and treatment, quarantine and isolation, and/or facility ventilation. Modeled interventions substantially reduced transmission, but some were not well-defined or did not consider ethical issues.
conclusionThe pandemic prompted urgent attention to transmission dynamics in jails and prisons, but there has been little modeling of respiratory infections other than SARS-CoV-2 and tuberculosis. Increased attention to calibration, validation, and the practical and ethical aspects of intervention implementation could improve translation of model estimates into tangible benefits for the highly vulnerable populations in carceral settings.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.