ArticleJournal of mathematical biology2024
Duration of transients in outbreaks: when can infectiousness be estimated?
Article in Journal of mathematical biology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Analysis of the SEIR mean-field model in dynamic networks under intervention.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We investigate sub-leading orders of the classic SEIR-model using contact matrices from modeling of the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19 in Denmark. The goal of this is to illustrate when the growth rate, and by extension the infection transmission potential (basic or initial reproduction number), can be estimated in a new outbreak, e.g. after introduction of a new variant of a virus. In particular, we look at the time scale on which this happens in a realistic outbreak to guide future data collection. We find that as long as susceptible depletion is a minor effect, the transients are gone within around 3 weeks corresponding to about 4-5 times the incubation time. We also argue that this result generalizes to other airborne diseases in a fully mixed population.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.