Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39698779›Full record

Observational studyJournal of diabetes investigation2025

Rising mortality rates linked to type-2 diabetes and obesity in the United States: An observational analysis from 1999 to 2022.

Mushood Ahmed, Abdullah Nofal, Aimen Shafiq, Hira Javaid, Areeba Ahsan, Zain Ali Nadeem, Raheel Ahmed, Mahboob Alam, Mamas A Mamas, Marat Fudim and 1 more

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Journal of diabetes investigation, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Mushood AhmedDepartment of Medicine, Rawalpindi Medical University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9872-8224
Abdullah NofalDepartment of Medicine, Services Institute of Medical Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan.
Aimen ShafiqDepartment of Medicine, Dow University of Health Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan.
Hira JavaidDepartment of Medicine, Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore, Pakistan.
Areeba AhsanDepartment of Medicine, Foundation University Medical College, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Zain Ali NadeemDepartment of Medicine, Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore, Pakistan.
Raheel AhmedNational Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Mahboob AlamDivision of Cardiology, The Texas Heart Institute, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.
Mamas A MamasKeele Cardiovascular Research Group, Centre for Prognosis Research, Keele University, Stoke-On-Trent, UK.
Marat FudimDepartment of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Gregg C FonarowAhmanson-UCLA Cardiomyopathy Center, Division of Cardiology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity are increasing in the United States. However, population-level data for mortality trends due to T2D and obesity are limited. This study aims to assess these death trends among adults in the United States categorized by sex, race, and geographical location.

methodsWe queried the CDC-WONDER database for multiple cause of death data of adults aged ≥25 years. The crude mortality rates (CMR), age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs), annual percent change (APC), and the average APC (AAPC) along with a 95% confidence interval (CI) were analyzed.

resultsFrom 1999 to 2022, a total of 88,597 T2DM and obesity-related deaths were recorded in the United States. The AAMR consistently increased from 1999 to 2017 (APC: 7.64; 95% CI: 1.91-9.96), followed by a marked rise from 2017 to 2022 (APC: 20.13; 95% CI: 12.88-38.57). The AAMR was approximately 3.58 times higher during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the period from 1999 to 2019. The AAMR for males was consistently greater than that for females. The highest AAMR was observed in non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks or African Americans, followed by NH White, Hispanic or Latino, and other NH populations. Rural areas (AAMR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.83-1.89) exhibited a greater AAMR than urban regions 1.26 (95% CI: 1.25-1.27).

conclusionsOur results indicate a substantial increasing trend of T2D and obesity-related deaths in the United States especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2ObesityAdultAgedCOVID-19FemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedMortalityPrevalenceUnited StatesMortalityObesityType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID39698779
PMCPMC11871392

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.