ArticleEuropean psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists2024
A prognostic model for predicting functional impairment in youth mental health services.
Article in European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Young minds in distress: Exploring the global rise in youth mental health diagnoses.Molecular psychiatry · 2026Review
- Weighing Costs and Benefits of Delay and the Acceptance of Two Decision Support Tools in Mental Health Care: Scoping Study Using Quantitative and Qualitative Data.JMIR human factors · 2025Article
- European Psychiatry: 2024 in review.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundFunctional impairment is a major concern among those presenting to youth mental health services and can have a profound impact on long-term outcomes. Early recognition and prevention for those at risk of functional impairment is essential to guide effective youth mental health care. Yet, identifying those at risk is challenging and impacts the appropriate allocation of indicated prevention and early intervention strategies.
methodsWe developed a prognostic model to predict a young person's social and occupational functional impairment trajectory over 3 months. The sample included 718 young people (12-25 years) engaged in youth mental health care. A Bayesian random effects model was designed using demographic and clinical factors and model performance was evaluated on held-out test data via 5-fold cross-validation.
resultsEight factors were identified as the optimal set for prediction: employment, education, or training status; self-harm; psychotic-like experiences; physical health comorbidity; childhood-onset syndrome; illness type; clinical stage; and circadian disturbances. The model had an acceptable area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.56-0.81) overall, indicating its utility for predicting functional impairment over 3 months. For those with good baseline functioning, it showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.80, 0.67-0.79) for identifying individuals at risk of deterioration.
conclusionsWe developed and validated a prognostic model for youth mental health services to predict functional impairment trajectories over a 3-month period. This model serves as a foundation for further tool development and demonstrates its potential to guide indicated prevention and early intervention for enhancing functional outcomes or preventing functional decline.
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