ArticleBMC global and public health2024
Systems modelling and simulation to guide targeted investments to reduce youth suicide and mental health problems in a low-middle-income country.
Article in BMC global and public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- System dynamics modelling methods for public health policy evaluation: a systematic literature review focussing on mental health and substance use disorders.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Participatory systems modelling to improve mental health systems in Bogotá, Colombia: stakeholders' perspectives, experiences and networks.International journal of mental health systems · 2026Article
- Following the youth patient journey in the mental health help-seeking process in Bogotá, Colombia.International journal of mental health systems · 2026Article
- Social Determinants and Developmental Factors Influencing Suicide Risk and Self-Injury in Healthcare Contexts.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- 2024 at BMC Global and Public Health: a year in review.BMC global and public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDespite suicide's public health significance and global mental health awareness, current suicide prevention efforts show limited impact, posing a challenge for low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to develop a dynamic simulation model that could be used to examine the potential effectiveness of alternative interventions for reducing youth mental health problems and suicidal behavior in Bogotá, Colombia.
methodsA system dynamics model was designed using a participatory approach involving three workshops conducted in 2021 and 2022. These workshops engaged 78 stakeholders from various health and social sectors to map key mental health outcomes and influential factors affecting them. A model was subsequently developed, tested, and presented to the participants for interactive feedback, guided by a moderator. Simulation analyses were conducted to compare projected mental health outcomes for a range of intervention scenarios with projections for a reference scenario corresponding to business-as-usual.
resultsA total of 6670 suicide attempts and 347 suicides are projected among 7 - 17-year-olds from January 1, 2023, to early 2031 under the business-as-usual scenario. Mental health issues among 12 - 17-year-olds are projected to increase from 18.9% (2023) to 27.8% (2031), and substance use issues from 2.29 to 2.49% over the same period. School-based suicide prevention and gatekeeper training are the most effective strategies, reducing total numbers of suicide attempts and suicides by more than 20% (i.e., compared to business-as-usual). However, discontinuous funding significantly hinders these effective suicide prevention efforts.
conclusionsSystems modelling is an important tool for understanding where the best strategic financial and political investments lie for improving youth mental health in resource-constrained settings.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.