ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2024
The impact of natural climate variability on the global distribution of Aedes aegypti: a mathematical modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Climatic, Socioecological and Environmental Determinants of Aedes spp. Dynamics at the Community Interface: A Systematic Review With Reflections From a One Health Perspective.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2026Pooled it
- The global burden of climate-sensitive health impacts: a systematic review of mortality, morbidity, and economic costs.The Pan African medical journal · 2026Pooled it
- Climate and socioeconomic factors drive heterogeneous dengue risk escalation in the Chinese population.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Climate change and Plasmodium vivax Malaria Risk in Brazil: Developing adaptive tool for Brazilian Municipalities.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Dengue Epidemiology in Mexico: Temperature as a Contributing Factor to National Dengue Trends.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Entomological Surveillance ofJournal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2026Article
- Review
- NS5-targeting nucleoside analogs inhibit dengue virus and other flaviviruses.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- High-resolution climate-dengue modeling and mid-century projections under SSP5-8.5 in Costa Rica.Science in One Health · 2026Article
- Entomological Surveillance and Vector Competence: A Crucial Front in Dengue Prevention.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2026Review
- Leveraging Climate Data Through Intelligent Systems for the Prediction of Arbovirus Transmission byInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Climate change, urbanisation and transmission potential: Aedes aegypti mosquito projections forecast future arboviral disease hotspots in Brazil.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Thermal influence on development and morphological traits of Aedes aegypti in central India and its relevance to climate change.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Time of Emergence and Future Projections of Extremes of Malaria Infections in Africa.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Clinical features and laboratory indicators of dengue infection in China: a retrospective study of adult patients in a hospital of traditional Chinese medicine.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Mechanistic yellow fever modelling under climate change in Brazil and beyond: Information gaps and future steps.Wellcome open research · 2025Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundAedes aegypti spread pathogens affecting humans, including dengue, Zika, and yellow fever viruses. Anthropogenic climate change is altering the spatial distribution of Ae aegypti and therefore the locations at risk of vector-borne disease. In addition to climate change, natural climate variability, resulting from internal atmospheric processes and interactions between climate system components (eg, atmosphere-land and atmosphere-ocean interactions), determines climate outcomes. However, the role of natural climate variability in modifying the effects of anthropogenic climate change on future environmental suitability for Ae aegypti has not been assessed fully. In this study, we aim to assess uncertainty arising from natural climate variability in projections of Ae aegypti suitability up to the year 2100.
methodsIn this mathematical modelling study, we developed an ecological model in which Ae aegypti population dynamics depend on climate variables (temperature and rainfall). We used 100 projections of future climate from the Community Earth System Model, a comprehensive climate model that simulates natural climate variability as well as anthropogenic climate change, in combination with our ecological model to generate a range of equally plausible scenarios describing the global distribution of suitable conditions for Ae aegypti up to 2100. Each of these scenarios corresponds to a single climate projection, allowing us to explore the difference in Ae aegypti suitability between the most-suitable and the least-suitable projections.
findingsOur key finding was that natural climate variability generates substantial variation in future projections of environmental suitability for Ae aegypti. Even for projections generated under the same Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario (SSP3-7.0), in 2100 climatic conditions in London might be suitable for Ae aegypti for 0-5 months of the year, depending on natural climate variability.
interpretationNatural climate variability affects environmental suitability for important disease vectors. Some regions could experience vector-borne disease outbreaks earlier than expected under climate change alone.
fundingEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and Wellcome Trust.
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