ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2024
The role of vector population variation and climate in Zika virus transmission patterns in Africa: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Climatic, Socioecological and Environmental Determinants of Aedes spp. Dynamics at the Community Interface: A Systematic Review With Reflections From a One Health Perspective.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2026Pooled it
- Genetic divergence in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes potentially associated with enhanced capacity for arbovirus transmission.BMC biology · 2026Article
- Rapid urban evolution of the dengue mosquito in West African cities.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Contrasting egg-laying, adult abundance and genetics of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in two ecologically distinct regions in Kenya.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- A targeted amplicon sequencing panel for cost-effective high-throughput genotyping of Aedes aegypti.Parasites & vectors · 2026Article
- Natural salivary gland barrier curtails Zika virus transmission in Thai Aedes aegypti.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- A targeted amplicon sequencing panel for cost-effective high-throughput genotyping ofbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Genomics of urban adaptation and exaptation in mosquitoes and consequences for vectorial capacity.Current opinion in insect science · 2025Review
- Why the growth of arboviral diseases necessitates a new generation of global risk maps and future projections.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- An integrated framework for antimicrobial resistance: links with climate change and vulnerability.Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundZika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have raised major global health concerns recently, yet reported outbreaks are rare in Africa, where ZIKV was first discovered. Recent studies on Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits ZIKV, might explain this phenomenon. The Ae aegypti subspecies present in Africa shows lower preference for biting humans and reduced susceptibility to ZIKV infection compared with the subspecies distributed outside Africa. Alternatively, climate might strongly limit transmission as it affects multiple traits of ZIKV and the mosquito vector.
methodsWe used a modelling approach informed by empirical data to assess ZIKV transmission risk across Africa. We fitted the model using data from laboratory experiments, and validated the model by comparing predicted transmission suitability with seroprevalence surveys conducted across Africa. Additionally, we used mosquito genetic and climate-based projections to map future ZIKV outbreak risk at 59 urban centres in Africa.
findingsThe model predictions partially and significantly explain historical patterns of ZIKV circulation in Africa (accounting for 46% of the variation in seroprevalence surveys). Mosquito population genetics influence transmission more strongly than climate through two mechanisms: vector-host contact and vector competence. If climate and mosquito genetic population projections are accurate and there are no other changes to drivers of Zika virus transmission in Africa, we predict that approximately three-quarters of the most populous African cities will be suitable for ZIKV outbreaks by the end of the century.
interpretationBoth population-level genomic variation in mosquitoes and climate contribute to the lack of ZIKV outbreaks in Africa. Given the importance of mosquito genetics in driving this pattern, local genomic surveillance of mosquito populations would help predict outbreaks in vulnerable communities. This will become increasingly important with population growth, urbanisation, and climate change.
fundingPrinceton University, French Government's Investissement d'Avenir and France 2030 programmes, MSDAVENIR, and US National Institutes of Health.
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