Survival After Radical Cystectomy for Bladder Cancer: Development of a Fair Machine Learning Model.

backgroundPrediction models based on machine learning (ML) methods are being increasingly developed and adopted in health care. However, these models may be prone to bias and considered unfair if they demonstrate variable performance in population subgroups. An unfair model is of particular concern in bladder cancer, where disparities have been identified in sex and racial subgroups.

objectiveThis study aims (1) to develop a ML model to predict survival after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer and evaluate for potential model bias in sex and racial subgroups; and (2) to compare algorithm unfairness mitigation techniques to improve model fairness.

methodsWe trained and compared various ML classification algorithms to predict 5-year survival after radical cystectomy using the National Cancer Database. The primary model performance metric was the F

resultsWe identified 16,481 patients; 23.1% (n=3800) were female, and 91.5% (n=15,080) were "White," 5% (n=832) were "Black," 2.3% (n=373) were "Hispanic," and 1.2% (n=196) were "Asian." The 5-year mortality rate was 75% (n=12,290). The best naive model was extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), which had an F

conclusionsThe ML model predicting survival after radical cystectomy exhibited bias across sex and racial subgroups. By using algorithm unfairness mitigation techniques, we improved algorithmic fairness as measured by the eOR. Our study highlights the role of not only evaluating for model bias but also actively mitigating such disparities to ensure equitable health care delivery. We also deployed the first web-based fair ML model for predicting survival after radical cystectomy.