Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39670224›Full record

ArticleHeliyon2024

Modelling and stability analysis of the dynamics of measles with application to Ethiopian data.

Hailay Weldegiorgis Berhe, Abadi Abay Gebremeskel, Habtu Alemayehu Atsbaha, Yohannes Yirga Kefela, Abadi Abraha Asgedom, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Shaibu Osman, Lamin Kabareh

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Article in Heliyon, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Hailay Weldegiorgis BerheDepartment of Mathematics, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Tigray, Ethiopia.
Abadi Abay GebremeskelDepartment of Mathematics, Raya University, Maichew, Tigray, Ethiopia.
Habtu Alemayehu AtsbahaDepartment of Mathematics, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Tigray, Ethiopia.
Yohannes Yirga KefelaDepartment of Mathematics, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Tigray, Ethiopia.
Abadi Abraha AsgedomDepartment of Mathematics, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Tigray, Ethiopia.
Woldegebriel Assefa WoldegerimaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada.
Shaibu OsmanDepartment of Basic Sciences, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ghana.
Lamin KabarehDepartment of Statistics, University of the Gambia, Gambia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Measles, a highly contagious airborne disease, remains endemic in many developing countries with low vaccination coverage. In this paper, we present a deterministic mathematical compartmental model to analyze the dynamics of measles. We establish global stability conditions for both disease-free and endemic equilibria using the Lyapunov functional stability method. By using arbitrary parameters, we find that the proposed model exhibits forward bifurcation. To simulate the solution of the model for the forward problem, we perform numerical integration using MATLAB software. Moreover, we calibrate the model with real data from Ethiopia and estimate the parameters along with a 95 percent confidence interval (CI) by formulating an inverse problem. It is noteworthy that our model fits well with the actual data from Ethiopia. The estimated basic reproduction number (

Indexed as

Basic reproduction numberForward bifurcationGlobal stabilityMeaslesModel calibrationVaccination

Identifiers

PMID39670224
PMCPMC11637132

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.