Risk Analysis for Invasion of the Forest Pest Paropsisterna bimaculata Present in Tasmania to Areas of the World.

Paropsisterna bimaculata is an essential pest of eucalyptus species. The insect is consistently associated with severe defoliation in large crop plantations in Tasmania. Its attack causes a reduction in the volume of wood produced and, in severe cases, the death of trees. Eucalyptus is the most important species in the global forestry sector and is economically significant in many countries. The extensive insect fauna associated with these species demonstrates the need for increasingly effective control and prevention methods, especially for those regulated as quarantine pests. This study aimed to develop an ecoclimatic index model for P. bimaculata using the CLIMEX software, highlighting the potential distribution of P. bimaculata in the world and the areas at risk of introducing the insect into planted forest crops. The potential distribution of P. bimaculata showed high suitability in regions of Asia, Africa, Europe, Oceania, and America, with greater probability in countries in Europe and South America. The results are mainly associated with regions with temperate climates. Furthermore, an area in Brazil's South and Southeast regions also showed an adequate distribution for the species. The model's results presented here can assist in developing strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of P. bimaculata in eucalyptus crops worldwide.