Early postnatal care uptake and its associated factors following childbirth in East Africa-a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach.

Background: The postnatal period is a critical period for both mothers and their newborns for their health. Lack of early postnatal care (PNC) services during a 2-day period is a life-threatening situation for both the mother and the babies. However, no data have been examined for PNCs in East Africa. Hence, using the more flexible Bayesian multilevel modeling approach, this study aims to investigate the pooled prevalence and potential factors for PNC utilization among women after delivery in East African countries. Methods: We retrieved secondary data from the Kids Record (KR) demographic and health surveys (DHS) data from 2015 to 2022 from 10 East African countries. A total of 77,052 weighted women were included in the study. We used R 4.3.2 software for analysis. We fitted Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. Techniques such as Rhat, effective sample size, density, time series, autocorrelation plots, widely applicable information criterion (WAIC), deviance information criterion (DIC), and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation were used to estimate the model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo (HMC) and its extensions, No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) techniques. An adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% credible interval (CrI) in the multivariable model to select variables that have a significant association with PNC was used. Results: The overall pooled prevalence of PNC within 48 hrs. of delivery was about 52% (95% CrI: 39, 66). A higher rate of PNC usage was observed among women aged 25-34 years (AOR = 1.21; 95% CrI: 1.15, 1.27) and 35-49-years (AOR = 1.61; 95% CrI: 1.5, 1.72) as compared to women aged 15-24 years; similarly, women who had achieved primary education (AOR = 1.96; 95% CrI: 1.88, 2.05) and secondary/higher education (AOR = 3.19; 95% CrI: 3.03, 3.36) as compared to uneducated women; divorced or widowed women (AOR = 0.83; 95% CrI: 0.77, 0.89); women who had currently working status (AOR = 0.9; 95% CrI: 0.87, 0.93); poorer women (AOR = 0.88; 95% CrI: 0.84, 0.92), middle-class women (AOR = 0.83; 95% CrI: 0.79, 0.87), richer women (AOR = 0.77; 95% CrI: 0.73, 0.81), and richest women (AOR = 0.59; 95% CrI: 0.55, 0.63) as compared to the poorest women; women who had media exposure (AOR = 1.32; 95% CrI: 1.27, 1.36), were having 3-5 children (AOR = 0.89; 95% CrI: 0.84, 0.94), had >5 children (AOR = 0.69; 95% CrI: 0.64, 0.75), had first birth at age < 20 years (AOR = 0.82; 95% CrI: 0.79, 0.84), had at least one ANC visit (AOR = 1.93; 95% CrI: 1.8, 2.08), delivered at health facilities (AOR = 2.57; 95% CrI: 2.46, 2.68), had average birth size (AOR = 0.94; 95% CrI: 0.91, 0.98) and small birth size child (AOR = 0.88; 95% CrI: 0.84, 0.92), had twin newborns (AOR = 1.15; 95% CrI: 1.02, 1.3), and fourth and above birth order (AOR = 0.88; 95% CrI: 0.82, 0.95) were individual-driven women who have been independently associated with PNC, respectively. Regarding community-level variables, rural women (AOR = 0.76; 95% CrI: 0.72, 0.79), high media exposure communities (AOR = 1.1; 95% CrI: 1.04, 1.18), communities with high wealth levels (AOR = 0.88 95% CrI: 0.83, 0.94), communities with high antenatal care (ANC) utilization (AOR = 1.13, 95% CrI: 1.07, 1.19), and long distance to health facilities (AOR = 1.5; 95% CrI: 1.38, 1.63) were among the community factors associated with PNC, respectively. Conclusion: One of the significant public health priorities in East Africa continues to be the underutilization of immediate PNC. The government ought to prioritize improving maternity and child health services, collaborating with interested parties in the area, reducing health disparities, educating mothers about child health, and other connected issues that are very beneficial.