Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39642215›Full record

ArticleScience advances2024

Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico.

Andrew J Wilson, R Daniel Bressler, Catherine Ivanovich, Cascade Tuholske, Colin Raymond, Radley M Horton, Adam Sobel, Patrick Kinney, Tereza Cavazos, Jeffrey G Shrader

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
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  4. Article
  5. Weather forecasts become more important for reducing mortality as the climate warms.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
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  7. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Andrew J WilsonCenter on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6132-6352
R Daniel BresslerCenter for Environmental Economics and Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4978-7433
Catherine IvanovichClimate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0703-4786
Cascade TuholskeDepartment of Earth Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4806-0462
Colin RaymondJoint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3093-5774
Radley M HortonClimate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5574-9962
Adam SobelClimate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3602-0567
Patrick KinneySchool of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.
Tereza CavazosDepartment of Physical Oceanography, CICESE, B.C., Mexico.ORCID 0000-0003-3097-9021
Jeffrey G ShraderCenter for Environmental Economics and Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8981-0450

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent studies project that temperature-related mortality will be the largest source of damage from climate change, with particular concern for the elderly whom it is believed bear the largest heat-related mortality risk. We study heat and mortality in Mexico, a country that exhibits a unique combination of universal mortality microdata and among the most extreme levels of humid heat. Combining detailed measurements of wet-bulb temperature with age-specific mortality data, we find that younger people who are particularly vulnerable to heat: People under 35 years old account for 75% of recent heat-related deaths and 87% of heat-related lost life years, while those 50 and older account for 96% of cold-related deaths and 80% of cold-related lost life years. We develop high-resolution projections of humid heat and associated mortality and find that under the end-of-century SSP 3-7.0 emissions scenario, temperature-related deaths shift from older to younger people. Deaths among under-35-year-olds increase 32% while decreasing by 33% among other age groups.

Indexed as

Hot TemperatureAdolescentAdultAgedAge FactorsChildChild, PreschoolClimate ChangeFemaleHumansHumidityMaleMexicoMiddle AgedMortalityYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID39642215
PMCPMC11623271

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.