Observational studyHeart (British Cardiac Society)2025
Forecasting cardiovascular disease risk and burden in China from 2020 to 2030: a simulation study based on a nationwide cohort.
Observational study in Heart (British Cardiac Society), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT02536456 (China PEACE Million Persons Project), which is not on this map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
China PEACE Million Persons Project
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The Efficacy and Safety of Four Novel PCSK9 Monoclonal Antibodies in Patients With Hypercholesterolemia: A Systematic Review With Network Meta-Analysis and Trial Sequential Analysis.Cardiovascular therapeutics · 2026Pooled it
- Efficacy and safety of Yingxin pill for stable angina pectoris with heart blood stasis obstruction syndrome: a randomized, single-blind, positive-controlled trial.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2026Trial
- Cardiovascular disease prevention in China: challenges and opportunities in the artificial intelligence-enabled digital health era.Nature reviews. Cardiology · 2026Review
- Retinal vascular phenotyping for early detection of coronary artery disease: quantitative assessment and diagnostic modelling.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Article
- Decoding cardiovascular risk in Chinese middle-aged and elderly adults: a 9-year prospective study integrating machine learning with explainable AI based on CHARLS cohort.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026Article
- HbA1c-to-HDL-C ratio and risk of incident cardiovascular disease among older adults: evidence from a 7-year prospective cohort study in southwestern China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Development of a machine learning model for cardiovascular diseases risk prediction in older HIV/AIDS patients in Southern China from an eleven-year cohort study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Adhering to Life's Essential 8 Is Associated With Greater Bone Mineral Accrual During Childhood and Adolescence.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2025Article
- Current status of career adaptability among Chinese cardiovascular specialist nurses: a latent profile analysis.BMC nursing · 2025Article
- Development and validation of the physical literacy scale for young and middle-aged patients with hypertension.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2025Article
- Comparison of nine insulin resistance surrogates for predicting cardiovascular disease: a cohort study.Diabetology & metabolic syndrome · 2025Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a significant public health challenge in China. This study aimed to project the burden of CVD from 2020 to 2030 using a nationwide cohort and to simulate the potential impact of various control measures on morbidity and mortality.
methodsAn agent-based model was employed to simulate annual CVD incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2030. The effects of different prevention and treatment interventions, modelled on international strategies, were also explored.
resultsThe study included 106 259 participants. The annual CVD incidence rate is projected to increase from 0.74% in 2021 to 0.97% by 2030, with age-standardised and sex-standardised rates rising from 0.71% to 0.96%. CVD mortality is expected to rise from 0.39% in 2021 to 0.46% in 2024, after which it will stabilise at 0.44% by 2030. Community-based interventions and improved access to inpatient care are predicted to reduce the projected burden of CVD significantly.
conclusionsThe incidence of CVD in China is projected to increase steadily over the next decade, while mortality will plateau after 2024. Comprehensive interventions, including community-based screenings and enhanced healthcare access, could significantly mitigate the CVD burden. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02536456.
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