ArticleHealth economics2025
The Growth of Illicit Drug Use and Its Effects on Murder Rates.
Article in Health economics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Functionalized graphene oxide-based electrode material for the potentiometric detection of codeine phosphate in commercial cough syrups for forensic applications.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- From addiction to aggression: The spillover effects of opioid policies on intimate partner violence.Journal of health economics · 2025Article
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Abstract
After years of reductions in the rate of murder in the United States, the national murder rate has increased since 2015. The causes of this trend are generally unknown, though there is some evidence related to narcotic drugs. Arrests related to heroin and cocaine had been stable between 2010 and 2014 before a sudden increase in 2015. Likewise, the number of murders related to narcotic drugs has increased since 2013, with a jump in 2015. Increased rates of these crimes parallel recent dramatic growth in overdoses involving heroin. However, the causal relationship between the recent opioid crisis and the rise in murder rates is missing from the literature. I used OxyContin reformulation as an exogenous shock to illicit markets. OxyContin reformulation led some people who misused OxyContin to switch to illicit opioids. Previous work has shown that areas with higher rates of OxyContin misuse experienced faster growth in heroin overdoses post-reformulation. I tested whether this growth in illicit drug use caused an increase in crime. After reformulation, I find significantly greater relative increases in murder rates in states with high pre-reformulation rates of OxyContin misuse. The results support a causal link between the opioid epidemic and crime.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.