Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39622302›Full record

ArticleGastroenterology2025

Model of Urgency for Liver Transplantation in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Practical Model to Prioritize Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma on the Liver Transplant Waitlist.

Joshua S Norman, Neil Mehta, W Ray Kim, Jane W Liang, Scott W Biggins, Sumeet K Asrani, Julie Heimbach, Vivek Charu, Allison J Kwong

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Gastroenterology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Emerging applications of traditional and generative artificial intelligence in liver transplantation.Liver transplantation : official publication of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases and the International Liver Transplantation Society · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
  6. [Novel research horizon for liver transplantation management model in hepatocellular carcinoma based on the tumor-donor liver-recipient].Zhonghua gan zang bing za zhi = Zhonghua ganzangbing zazhi = Chinese journal of hepatology · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Joshua S NormanDepartment of Medicine, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California.
Neil MehtaDivision of Gastroenterology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
W Ray KimDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California.
Jane W LiangQuantitative Sciences Unit, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California.
Scott W BigginsUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Sumeet K AsraniBaylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas.
Julie HeimbachMayo Clinic, Mayo, Minnesota.
Vivek CharuQuantitative Sciences Unit, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California; Department of Pathology, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California. Electronic address: vcharu@stanford.edu.
Allison J KwongDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California. Electronic address: ajk@stanford.edu.

Funding

Stratification of Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease using the SAFE ScoreR01DK127224 · NIDDK · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI KIM, W. RAY · 2020 to 2023
$1.7M
Defining Phenotypes of Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease with Acute Hepatic DecompensationK23AA029197 · NIAAA · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI KWONG, ALLISON · 2021 to 2025
$1.0M
NIAAA NIH HHS K23 AA029197NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK127224
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND &

aimsCurrently, patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States are assigned a uniform score relative to the median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) at transplant after a minimum 6-month waiting period. The authors developed a risk stratification model for patients with HCC using the available and objective variables at time of listing.

methodsAdult liver transplant candidates with approved HCC exception in the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database from 2015-2022 were identified. Cox regression analysis, as well as machine learning models (random survival forest and neural network), were used to develop models predicting waitlist dropout. Predicted waitlist dropout for patients with HCC was scaled to patients without exception using MELD 3.0.

resultsThere were 18,273 patients with HCC listed for liver transplant with a median MELD 3.0 of 11 (interquartile range, 8-15) and α-fetoprotein of 6 ng/mL (interquartile range, 4-17 ng/mL). Because all models performed similarly, a parsimonious Cox-based model composed of MELD 3.0, α-fetoprotein, tumor burden, and Model of Urgency for Liver Transplantation in HCC, was selected, with a C-statistic of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) for 6-month dropout in the validation set, outperforming previous models, including HALT-HCC (Hazard Associated with Liver Transplantation for HCC), deMELD (Dropout Equivalent MELD), and MELD-Eq (MELD Equivalent).

conclusionsAn urgency-based priority system for patients with HCC, similar to MELD for patients with chronic liver disease, is achievable with a parsimonious model incorporating α-fetoprotein, MELD 3.0, and tumor size. This approach can be applied to the liver allocation system to prioritize patients with HCC and can inform decision making regarding urgency weights for exception cases in the upcoming continuous distribution system.

Indexed as

Carcinoma, HepatocellularDecision Support TechniquesLiver NeoplasmsLiver TransplantationPatient SelectionWaiting ListsAdultAgedalpha-FetoproteinsFemaleHumansMachine LearningMaleMiddle AgedPatient DropoutsRetrospective StudiesAFP protein, humanalpha-FetoproteinsHCCHepatocellular CarcinomaLiver TransplantMELDModel for End-Stage Liver DiseaseOrgan Allocation

Identifiers

PMID39622302
PMCPMC11930618

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.