New Disability in a Cohort Study of Older Men-The Manitoba Follow-Up Study.

Background: There is a large literature on the prevalence of disability in older men, but less data on the incidence of new disability. Objectives: 1. To determine the incidence of moderate-to-severe disability in a prospective cohort study of aging men; and 2. To determine predisposing risk factors for new moderate to severe disability. Design & Setting: The Manitoba Follow-up Study is a closed cohort study. In 1948, the initial sample was 3,983 men who qualified for air crew training in the Royal Canadian Air Force. In 2004, there were 796 men who were still alive and responded to the annual questionnaire with no missing data, and who did not have disability. The mean age at that time was 84. Methods: We calculated the incidence of new moderate-to-severe disability from 2004 to 2017, calculated the time to disability, and constructed survival analysis models to determine factors which predicted disability. Results: The incidence of disability increased with the aging of the cohort and ranged from 4% to 12% per year. In unadjusted models, poor self-rated health (SRH), low life satisfaction, a low score on the Physical Component Score (PCS) of the Short Form-36, and the number of chronic conditions were all associated with new disability. In adjusted models, SRH, the PCS, and the number of chronic conditions were associated with new disability. Conclusions: Global measures of well-being, as well as multimorbidity, predict new disability.