Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39613453›Full record

ArticleBritish journal of sports medicine2025

Machine learning approaches to injury risk prediction in sport: a scoping review with evidence synthesis.

Christopher Leckey, Nicol van Dyk, Cailbhe Doherty, Aonghus Lawlor, Eamonn Delahunt

Abstract readScoping Review
In one paragraph

Article in British journal of sports medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
49citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

49 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  14. Predicting self-reported injury status among runners training for the New York City Marathon.PM & R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation · 2026
    Observational
  15. Review
  16. Article
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  20. [Progress and application of machine learning in sports injury research].Sheng wu yi xue gong cheng xue za zhi = Journal of biomedical engineering = Shengwu yixue gongchengxue zazhi · 2026
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Christopher LeckeySchool of Public Health Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland christopher.leckey@irfu.ie.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5614-3252
Nicol van DykSchool of Public Health Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0724-5997
Cailbhe DohertySchool of Public Health Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5284-856X
Aonghus LawlorInsight Centre for Data Analytics, University College Dublin, Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6160-4639
Eamonn DelahuntSchool of Public Health Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5449-5932

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThis study reviewed the current state of machine learning (ML) research for the prediction of sports-related injuries. It aimed to chart the various approaches used and assess their efficacy, considering factors such as data heterogeneity, model specificity and contextual factors when developing predictive models.

designScoping review. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE, SportDiscus and IEEEXplore.

resultsIn total, 1241 studies were identified, 58 full texts were screened, and 38 relevant studies were reviewed and charted. Football (soccer) was the most commonly investigated sport. Area under the curve (AUC) was the most common means of model evaluation; it was reported in 71% of studies. In 60% of studies, tree-based solutions provided the highest statistical predictive performance. Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were found to provide the highest performance for injury risk prediction. Logistic regression outperformed ML methods in 4 out of 12 studies. Three studies reported model performance of AUC>0.9, yet the clinical relevance is questionable.

conclusionsA variety of different ML models have been applied to the prediction of sports-related injuries. While several studies report strong predictive performance, their clinical utility can be limited, with wide prediction windows or broad definitions of injury. The efficacy of ML is hampered by small datasets and numerous methodological heterogeneities (cohort sizes, definition of injury and dependent variables), which were common across the reviewed studies.

Indexed as

Athletic InjuriesMachine LearningArea Under CurveHumansRisk AssessmentData ScienceReviewSporting injuriesSports medicine

Identifiers

PMID39613453
PMCPMC12013557

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.