ArticleScience advances2024
Climate refugia in the Great Barrier Reef may endure into the future.
Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Trait-Based Approach to Studying Animal Movement Responses to Extreme Events.Global change biology · 2026Review
- Regional dynamics drive differences in future heat stress and reveal where Hawaiian corals are most likely to persist.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Protection of coral reef fish delivers ecosystem-critical biocontrol of coral-eating starfish across the Great Barrier Reef.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Coral Bleaching: The Equatorial-Refugia Hypothesis.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Pyrosomes, Pyrosoma atlanticum: Highlighting plankton as an important food source for coral reefs in Timor-Leste.Ecology · 2025Article
- The Needle in the Haystack: Uncovering the First Whale Shark (Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
18 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Although global warming is leading to more frequent mass coral bleaching events worldwide, parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have consistently escaped severe coral bleaching. Modeling and satellite observations show that climate refugia are created by the upwelling of cooler water to the surface through the interactions of tides and currents with dense reef structures. Here, we use a high-resolution nested regional ocean model to investigate the future status of two relatively large refugia. On the basis of model projections under a high-emission scenario, we find that the upwelling mechanisms will stay active in a warming climate, and these regions are likely to remain approximately more than 1°C cooler than surrounding waters until at least into the 2080s, providing thermal relief to corals. Identification and protection of these refugia may help facilitate reef survival and related biodiversity preservation by allowing their corals time to acclimatize and adapt and ultimately provide source populations to replenish the rest of the reef.
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Registered trials
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