ArticleHeliyon2024
Forecasting of diarrhea disease using ARIMA model in Kendari City, Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia.
Article in Heliyon, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Time-Series Analysis and Age-Stratified Forecasting of Diarrheal Disease in Rwanda Using SARIMA Models.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Forecasting under-five stunting in Ethiopia using classical and machine learning time series models.PloS one · 2026Article
- Global burden of endometriosis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: a comprehensive analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in global women's health · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Background: In Indonesia, diarrhea is one of the endemic diseases that often leads to death. The high number of diarrhea cases has the potential to become an extraordinary event, thus requiring more serious attention. This research aims to analyze the data on recorded cases of diarrhea in the Health Department of Kendari City from January 2016 to June 2022. Methods: The ARIMA model, commonly referred to as ARIMA (p, d, q), is used, where Results: The forecast using this model indicates a decrease in diarrhea cases over the next two years, from July 2022 to June 2024. The forecast estimates a total of 1.971 diarrhea cases from July 2022 to June 2023 and 1.255 cases from July 2023 to June 2024. Conclusions: The incidence of diarrhea in Kendari City fluctuates every year. This forecast provides an early warning to the government to take preventive measures against diarrhea. It is hoped that this system will reduce the negative impact of diarrhea in Kendari City.
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