Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39604572›Full record

ArticleNature human behaviour2025

Large language models surpass human experts in predicting neuroscience results.

Xiaoliang Luo, Akilles Rechardt, Guangzhi Sun, Kevin K Nejad, Felipe Yáñez, Bati Yilmaz, Kangjoo Lee, Alexandra O Cohen, Valentina Borghesani, Anton Pashkov and 29 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature human behaviour, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
50citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

50 citing papers in PubMed.

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  14. SpikeLab: Agentic tools for spike data analysis.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

39 authors.

Xiaoliang LuoDepartment of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, UK. xiao.luo.17@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-5297-2114
Akilles RechardtDepartment of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0009-0009-9991-4577
Guangzhi SunDepartment of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5886-056X
Kevin K NejadDepartment of Physiology, Anatomy and Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0009-0006-4441-5517
Felipe YáñezMax Planck Institute for Neurobiology of Behavior - caesar, Bonn, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9598-0616
Bati YilmazNational Magnetic Resonance Research Center (UMRAM), Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey.ORCID 0000-0002-8824-0345
Kangjoo LeeDepartment of Psychiatry, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7760-8079
Alexandra O CohenDepartment of Psychology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3116-3529
Valentina BorghesaniFaculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, Université de Genève, Geneva, Switzerland.
Anton PashkovDepartment of Neurosurgery, Novosibirsk State Medical University, Novosibirsk, Russia.
Daniele MarinazzoDepartment of Data Analysis, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0002-9803-0122
Jonathan NicholasDepartment of Psychology, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
Alessandro SalatielloDepartment of Cognitive Neurology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-2311-8645
Ilia SucholutskyDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4121-7479
Pasquale MinerviniILCC, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8442-602X
Sepehr RazaviPhilosophy, Psychology, and Language Sciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4651-8852
Roberta RoccaDepartment of Culture, Cognition and Computation, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0001-9017-8088
Elkhan YusifovDepartment of Molecular Life Sciences, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-7227-839X
Tereza OkalovaDepartment of Bioengineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.ORCID 0009-0009-1688-6655
Nianlong GuLinguistic Research Infrastructure, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-8474-0836
Martin FeriancDepartment of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4031-6398
Mikail KhonaDepartment of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Kaustubh R PatilInstitute of Neuroscience and Medicine, INM-7: Brain and Behaviour, Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-0289-5480
Pui-Shee LeeGraduate School of Systemic Neurosciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Planegg-Martinsried, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8016-9468
Rui MataFaculty of Psychology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-1679-906X
Nicholas E MyersSchool of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5599-3044
Jennifer K BizleyEar Institute, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6605-2362
Sebastian MusslickInstitute of Cognitive Science, University of Osnabrück, Osnabrück, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8896-639X
Isil Poyraz BilginDépartement de psychologie, Centre de recherche de l'Institut universitaire de gériatrie de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Guiomar NisoInstituto Cajal, CSIC, Madrid, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-5872-8924
Justin M AlesSchool of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2089-1563
Michael GaeblerDepartment of Neurology, Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences, Leipzig, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4442-5778
N Apurva Ratan MurtyDepartment of Psychology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2191-797X
Leyla Loued-KhenissiDépartement des Neurosciences Cliniques, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0003-3241-6492
Anna BehlerSchool of Psychological Science, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-7129-7006
Chloe M HallInstitute of Physiology, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany.
Jessica DafflonData Science and Sharing Team, Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Facility, National Institute of Mental Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2540-0927
Sherry Dongqi BaoZurich Center for Neuroeconomics, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0003-4804-3379
Bradley C LoveDepartment of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, UK. b.love@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-7883-7076

Funding

Towards a computationally precise characterization of the human ventral visual pathwayR00EY032603 · NEI · GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY · PI N Apurva Ratan Murty · 2024 to 2026
$746k
NEI NIH HHS R00 EY032603RCUK | Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) ES/W007347/1Royal Society Wolfson Fellowship (18302)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. Here, to evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs indicated high confidence in their predictions, their responses were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where LLMs assist humans in making discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavours.

Indexed as

NeurosciencesForecastingHumansLarge Language Models

Identifiers

PMID39604572
PMCPMC11860209

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.