Evidence for an Adaptive, Large-Scale Range Shift in a Long-Distance Terrestrial Migrant.

Long-distance migrations are a striking, and strikingly successful, adaptation for highly mobile terrestrial animals in seasonal environments. However, it remains an open question whether migratory animals are more resilient or less resilient to rapidly changing environments. Furthermore, the mechanisms by which animals adapt or modify their migrations are poorly understood. We describe a dramatic shift of over 500 km in the wintering range of the Western Arctic Herd, a large caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herd in northwestern Alaska, an area that is undergoing some of the most rapid warming on Earth. Between 2012 and 2020, caribou switched from reliably wintering in maritime tundra in the southwesternmost portion of their range to more frequently wintering in mountainous areas to the east. Analysis of this range shift, in conjunction with nearly 200 documented mortality events, revealed that it was both broadly adaptive and likely driven by collective memory of poor winter conditions. Before the range shift, overwinter survival in the maritime tundra was high, routinely surpassing 95%, but falling to around 80% even as fewer animals wintered there. Meanwhile, in the increasingly used mountainous portion of the range, survival was intermediate and less variable across years compared to the extremes in the southern winter ranges. Thus, the shift only imperfectly mitigated overall increased mortality rates. The range shift has also been accompanied by changes in seasonal patterns of survival that are consistent with poorer nutritional intake in winter. Unexpectedly, the strongest single predictor of an individual's probability of migrating south was the overall survival of animals in the south in the preceding winter, suggesting that the range shift is in part driven by collective memory. Our results demonstrate the importance and use of collective decision making and memory for a highly mobile species for improving fitness outcomes in a dynamic, changing environment.