Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39592632›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2024

Changing characteristics, driving factors and future predictions of land use in the Weigan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis, China.

Baisong An, Xuemei Wang, Xiaoyu Huang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Baisong AnCollege of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, 830054, China.
Xuemei WangCollege of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, 830054, China. xmwang2022@xjnu.edu.cn.
Xiaoyu HuangCollege of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, 830054, China.

Funding

Graduate Research Innovation Project of Xinjiang Normal University XSY202301002National Natural Science Foundation of China 41561051Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China 2023D01A44
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The oasis serves as the central component of the arid ecosystem and plays a crucial role in supporting human activities. However, the ecological environment in the oasis region is fragile, and even a minor alteration in land use (LU) can significantly impact the stability of the ecosystem. Therefore, it is imperative to undertake comprehensive research on the spatio-temporal patterns of LU change in the oasis, reveal its driving factors, and predict future development. This is crucial for devising scientifically and logically sound land management strategies, upholding the equilibrium between humans and land in arid areas, and attaining sustainable development of the regional ecology and economy. This study focuses on the Weigan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis in China as the research area, analyzes the changes in LU in the oasis from 2010 to 2022 using various methods such as transition matrix, dynamic degree, intensity analysis, and center of gravity shift. The study also investigates the factors influencing these changes using the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD). Additionally, it predicts the future trends in LU development under four different scenarios using the mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA), and illustrates distribution characteristics by combining Moran's I index and hotspot analysis. The results suggest that: (1) Between 2010 and 2022, the LU in the oasis changed rapidly, with consistent increase in the amount of construction land, arable land, and garden land, while the amount of forest-grassland and unused land decreased overall. (2) Population density played a leading role in the changes, but soil type also had a significant impact. Over the course of time, the influence of roads and transportation has progressively increased. (3) Compared with 2022, the acreage of arable land, garden land, and construction land increases under the four future scenarios: natural development scenario (NDS), economic development scenario (EDS), cropland development scenario (CDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS). However, the acreage of forest-grassland and unused land decrease. From a spatial perspective, large towns, the downstream of alluvial fans, and the central oasis are key areas where the distribution of hot spots and sub-hot spots of each LU type varies significantly among the four scenarios. The EPS provides a certain level of protection for forest-grassland areas and water bodies, making it the most appropriate development model for oases. These findings have the potential to offer valuable academic guidance for oasis land resource management and are crucial for achieving coordinated development at regional level.

Indexed as

Driving mechanismsLand use changeMixed-cell cellular automataMulti-scenario predictionsOptimal parameters-based geographical detectorWeigan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis

Identifiers

PMID39592632
PMCPMC11599765

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.