Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39587521›Full record

ArticleBMC cancer2024

Time-dependent personalized prognostic analysis by machine learning in biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy: a retrospective cohort study.

Kodai Sato, Shinichi Sakamoto, Shinpei Saito, Hiroki Shibata, Yasutaka Yamada, Nobuyoshi Takeuchi, Yusuke Goto, Sazuka Tomokazu, Yusuke Imamura, Tomohiko Ichikawa and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC cancer, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Kodai SatoDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan.
Shinichi SakamotoDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan. rbatbat1@chiba-u.jp.
Shinpei SaitoDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan.
Hiroki ShibataDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan.
Yasutaka YamadaDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan.
Nobuyoshi TakeuchiDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan.
Yusuke GotoDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan.
Sazuka TomokazuDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan.
Yusuke ImamuraDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan.
Tomohiko IchikawaDepartment of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuoku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 260-8670, Japan.
Eiryo KawakamiDepartment of Artificial Intelligence Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, Chiba-shi, Chiba, Japan.

Funding

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) 20H03813Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) 20K09555Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) CREST Grant JPMJCR20H4
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundFor biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, treatments such as radiation therapy and androgen deprivation therapy are administered. To diagnose postoperative recurrence as early as possible and to intervene with treatment at the appropriate time, it is essential to accurately predict recurrence after radical prostatectomy. However, postoperative recurrence involves numerous patient-related factors, making its prediction challenging. The purpose of this study is to accurately predict the timing of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy and to analyze the risk factors for follow-up of high-risk patients and early detection of recurrence.

methodsWe utilized the machine learning survival analysis model called the Random Survival Forest utilizing the 58 clinical factors from 548 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy at Chiba University Hospital. To visualize prognostic factors and assess accuracy of the time course probability, we employed SurvSHAP(t) and time-dependent Area Under Cureve(AUC).

resultsThe time-dependent AUC of RSF was 0.785, which outperformed the Cox proportional hazards model (0.704), the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score (0.710), and the D'Amico score (0.658). The key prognostic factors for early recurrence were Gleason score(GS), Seminal vesicle invasion(SV), and PSA. The contribution of PSA to recurrence decreases after the first year, while SV and GS increase over time.

conclusionOur prognostic model analyzed the time-dependent relationship between the timing of recurrence and prognostic factors. Our study achieved personalized prognosis analysis and its rationale after radical prostatectomy by employing machine learning prognostic model. This prognostic model contributes to the early detection of recurrence by enabling clinicians to conduct appropriate follow-ups for high-risk patients.

Indexed as

Machine LearningNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalProstatectomyProstate-Specific AntigenProstatic NeoplasmsAgedHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm GradingPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsTime FactorsProstate-Specific AntigenMachine learningPrognostic modelProstate cancerProstatectomyRecurrence

Identifiers

PMID39587521
PMCPMC11587626

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.