ArticleVaccine2025
Poor vaccine responders mask the true trend in vaccine effectiveness against progression to severe disease.
Article in Vaccine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Vaccines can reduce an individual's risk of infection and their risk of progression to severe disease given infection. The latter effect is less commonly estimated but is relevant for vaccine impact modeling and cost-effectiveness calculations. Using a motivating example from the COVID-19 literature, we note how vaccine effectiveness against progression to severe disease can appear to increase from below 0 % to over 70 % within 8 months. With true biological strengthening of this magnitude being unlikely, we use a mathematical modeling framework to identify parameter combinations where this phenomenon can occur. Fundamental features are an immunocompetent population with high initial protection against infection, contrasted with a vulnerable subpopulation with poor vaccine response against infection and progression. As a result, the earliest infections are among those with the weakest protection against severe disease. This work highlights methodological challenges in isolating a vaccine's effect on progression to severe disease after infection, and it signals the need for refined analytical methods to adjust for differences between the vaccinated infected and the unvaccinated infected populations.
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Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.