ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2024
Forecasting the relative abundance of Aedes vector populations to enhance situational awareness for mosquito control operations.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Developing machine learning models to forecast mosquito abundance for climate change impacts and early warning system.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Hydrometeorological drivers of mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance in an urbanized region of central Oklahoma.Journal of medical entomology · 2026Article
- Frequent introductions and climate suitability drive increasing dengue risk in Florida.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus populations in Miami-Dade County, Florida.PloS one · 2026Article
- Gentrification influences mosquito community composition at neighborhood and county levels in Miami-Dade County, Florida.PloS one · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Aedes-borne diseases represent a major public health threat and mosquito control operations represent a key line of defense. Improving the real-time awareness of mosquito control authorities by providing reliable forecasts of the relative abundance of mosquito vectors could greatly enhance control efforts. To this aim, we developed an analytical tool that forecasts Aedes aegypti relative abundance 1 to 4 weeks ahead. Forecasts were validated against mosquito surveillance data (2,760 data points) collected over multiple years in four jurisdictions in the US. The symmetric absolute percentage error was in the range 0.43-0.69, and the 90% interquantile range of the forecasts had a coverage of 83-92%. Our forecasts consistently outperformed a reference "naïve" model for all analyzed study sites, forecasting horizon, and for periods with medium/high Ae. aegypti activity. The developed tool can be instrumental to address the need for evidence-based decision making.
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Registered trials
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