Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39583961›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in endocrinology2024

Global burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2044: a systematic analysis across SDI levels for the global burden of disease study 2021.

Ke-Jie He, Haitao Wang, Jianguang Xu, Guoyu Gong, Xu Liu, Huiting Guan

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in endocrinology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
59citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

59 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Ke-Jie He *The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People's Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Haitao Wang *The School of Clinical Medical Sciences, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan, China.
Jianguang XuThe Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People's Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Guoyu GongSchool of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
Xu LiuDepartment of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, China.
Huiting GuanShenzhen Bao'an Chinese Medicine Hospital, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: We aimed to assess temporal trends in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM)-related deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) at global and cross-social demographic index (SDI) levels, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) in 2021. Methods: We used geospatial mapping to visualize the global distribution of T2DM-related mortality and DALYs in 2021. Joinpoint regression assessed annual and average percent changes in DALYs and deaths from 1990 to 2021 across SDI regions. Age-period-cohort modeling examined the effects of age, period, and cohort on trends. Decomposition analysis evaluated the impact of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes on DALY trends. A stratified projection forecasted future T2DM burden by age and sex from 2020 to 2044. Results: T2DM-related mortality and DALYs were highest in low-SDI regions. Globally, T2DM-related deaths and DALYs have increased, with the most rapid rise in low and low-middle SDI regions, driven by population growth and epidemiological shifts. High-SDI countries showed a slower increase in DALYs, influenced more by aging. Age-period-cohort analysis indicated higher DALY rates in later birth cohorts and recent periods, especially in high-SDI regions. Future projections show a significant increase in the 70-74 age group and a gradual rise in other age groups. Conclusion: The burden of T2DM is projected to continue increasing, especially in low-SDI and low-middle SDI regions, where population growth and epidemiological shifts are the main contributors. This underscores the need for targeted, region-specific healthcare policies, preventive strategies, and age-specific interventions to address the increasing T2DM burden globally.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Disability-Adjusted Life YearsGlobal Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthAdultAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleForecastingHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceQuality-Adjusted Life Yearsage-period-cohort analysisdisability-adjusted life yearsepidemiological transitionmortalitysocio-demographic indextype 2 diabetes mellitus

Identifiers

PMID39583961
PMCPMC11581865

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.