Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39578575›Full record

ArticleCommunications medicine2024

Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza.

Istvan Bartha, Cyrus Maher, Victor Lavrenko, Yi-Pei Chen, Qiqing Tao, Julia di Iulio, Keith Boundy, Elizabeth Kinter, Wendy Yeh, Davide Corti and 1 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communications medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Istvan BarthaVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA. ibartha@vir.bio.
Cyrus MaherVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.
Victor LavrenkoVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.
Yi-Pei ChenVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.
Qiqing TaoVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.
Julia di IulioVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.
Keith BoundyVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.
Elizabeth KinterVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.
Wendy YehVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.
Davide CortiVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5797-1364
Amalio TelentiVir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA. atelenti@vir.bio.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6290-7677

Funding

TASK ORDER NO. 4, STSS PROGRAM SUPPORT AND TRANSITION-IN (4)75N95021D00001 · NIDA · AXLE INFORMATICS, LLC · PI MAYS, GARY · 2021 to 2022
$27.9M
TUBERCULOSIS PREVENTION IN CHILDREN TWO TO LESS THAN 13 YEARS OF AGE WITH AND WITHOUT HIV75N94023D00001 · NICHD · WESTAT, INC. · PI DRIVER, BARBARA · 2023 to 2025
$19.9M
RADX INNOVATION FUNNEL FOR HIV DIAGNOSTICS - AWARD MANAGEMENT75N92023D00001 · NHLBI · VENTUREWELL · 2024 to 2025
$10.0M
CLC NIH HHS 75N90023D00001NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92023D00001NICHD NIH HHS 75N94023D00001NIDA NIH HHS 75N95021D00001ORFDO NIH HHS 75N99023D00001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThere are three possible SARS-CoV-2 post-pandemic scenarios: (i) ongoing severity, (ii) influenza-like severity, and (iii) a transition to an endemic disease with lesser morbidity similar to that of other human coronaviruses.

methodsTo assess a possible evolution of the pandemic under the three scenarios, we use data from the US National Covid Cohort Collaborative, CDC COVID-NET, and CDC Fluview and from the WastewaterSCAN Dashboard. We include influenza disease and treatment response as benchmark. The US National Covid Cohort Collaborative allows the quantification of viral-specific morbidity using electronic health records from 424,165 SARS-CoV-2 cases, 53,846 influenza cases, and 199,971 uninfected control subjects from 2021-2022. Evolution of hospitalization rates is estimated from the correlation between national SARS-CoV-2 and influenza hospitalization data and viral gene copies in wastewater.

resultsOur findings reveal that medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit similar morbidity to influenza [indicative of scenario (ii)], but SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization rates are one order of magnitude lower than influenza when considering virus concentration in wastewater [indicative of scenario (iii)]. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 displays a more favorable response to antiviral therapy.

conclusionsOur analysis confirms a rapid decline in SARS-CoV-2 morbidity as it transitions to an endemic state.

Identifiers

PMID39578575
PMCPMC11584631

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.