Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39576674›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2025

Trends in cancer mortality under age 50 in 15 upper-middle and high-income countries.

Claudia Santucci, Silvia Mignozzi, Gianfranco Alicandro, Margherita Pizzato, Matteo Malvezzi, Eva Negri, Prabhat Jha, Carlo La Vecchia

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Sex Differences in Cancer Stage at Diagnosis of Nonreproductive Solid Organ Tumors in the United States, 2015 to 2022.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026
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  3. Cancer mortality predictions for 2025 in Latin America with focus on prostate cancer.European journal of cancer prevention : the official journal of the European Cancer Prevention Organisation (ECP) · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Claudia SantucciDepartment of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Department of Excellence 2023-2027, University of Milan, 20133 Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-9845-5307
Silvia MignozziDepartment of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Department of Excellence 2023-2027, University of Milan, 20133 Milan, Italy.ORCID 0009-0003-5703-0534
Gianfranco AlicandroDepartment of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-0430-2714
Margherita PizzatoDepartment of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Department of Excellence 2023-2027, University of Milan, 20133 Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-0340-0435
Matteo MalvezziDepartment of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, 43126 Parma, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-9110-3923
Eva NegriDepartment of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, 40138 Bologna, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-9712-8526
Prabhat JhaCentre for Global Health Research, Unity Health Toronto, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5B 1W8, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-7067-8341
Carlo La VecchiaDepartment of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Department of Excellence 2023-2027, University of Milan, 20133 Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-1441-897X

Funding

Dept. of Pathophysiology and TransplantationItalian Ministry of Education and ResearchThe Italian Foundation for Cancer Research 22987Università degli Studi di Milano
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRising cancer incidence, particularly for colorectal cancer, has been reported in young adults. This study examined whether this is related to an increase in mortality.

methodsWe analyzed World Health Organization mortality data among young adults aged 25-49 years in 15 most populous upper-middle and high-income countries from 1990 to 2021 with reliable data. Midyear populations were retrieved from the United Nations for the American Countries and from the World Health Organization for the other countries. We compared age-standardized mortality rates in 2019-2021 with those in 2009-2011 and performed joinpoint regression analysis for all cancers and selected most common cancer sites: colorectum, pancreas, lung, and breast.

resultsIn 2019-2021, the highest age-standardized mortality rates (per 100 000) were in Romanian males (38.6) and Argentinian females (45.9), while the lowest ones were in Japanese males (16.3) and females (22.7). Age-standardized mortality rates for colorectal cancers increased in 2019-2021 compared with 2009-2011 in 9 countries among men and in 7 countries among women. The highest increases were in the United Kingdom (males: +26.1%; females: +33.7%), Canada (males: +25.3%), and Mexico (males: +33.5%; females: +29.7%). Long-term analysis over the last 3 decades showed declining trends in total cancer mortality in the majority of countries, in lung cancer mortality across all countries, and in breast cancer in all countries except in Latin America.

conclusionsAlthough mortality from common cancers has generally decreased over the past 3 decades, mortality from colorectal cancer has increased in some countries. This highlights the need to control the obesity epidemic and implement targeted surveillance strategies in young populations.

Indexed as

Developed CountriesMortalityNeoplasmsAdultColorectal NeoplasmsFemaleGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedWorld Health Organization

Identifiers

PMID39576674
PMCPMC11972687

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.