ArticleCancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.)2025
Calculating Future 10-Year Breast Cancer Risks in Risk-Adapted Surveillance: A Method Comparison and Application in Clinical Practice.
Silke Zachariae, Anne S Quante, Marion Kiechle, Kerstin Rhiem, Tanja N Fehm, Jörg-Gunther Schröder, Judit Horvath, Elena Leinert, Nicola Dikow, Joelle Ronez and 20 more
Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraphArticle in Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
2 · The registryThe trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
3 · Its place in the literatureWho cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
4 · The recordCorrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
5 · Who and what moneyAuthors and funding
30 authors.
Silke Zachariae *Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics, and Epidemiology (IMISE), Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-1614-8790 Anne S Quante *Department of Gynecology and Center of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Technical University of Munich (TUM), TUM School of Medicine and Health, Klinikum rechts der Isar, TUM University Hospital, Munich, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4973-3024 Marion KiechleDepartment of Gynecology and Center of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Technical University of Munich (TUM), TUM School of Medicine and Health, Klinikum rechts der Isar, TUM University Hospital, Munich, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-4237-2657 Kerstin RhiemCenter for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Center for Integrated Oncology (CIO), Medical Faculty, University Hospital Cologne, Cologne, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9669-5657 Tanja N FehmDepartment of Gynecology and Obstetrics, CIO ABCD, University Hospital Duesseldorf, Duesseldorf, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4926-0108 Judit HorvathDepartment of Medical Genetics, Centre of Medical Genetics, University and University Hospital Münster, Münster, Germany.ORCID 0009-0007-0406-8757 Mirjam SchönfeldDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Maistrasse, Germany.ORCID 0009-0002-3907-320X Marion T van MackelenberghDepartment of Gynecology and Obstetrics, University Hospital of Schleswig-Holstein, Kiel, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-1084-5897 Ulrich A SchatzDepartment of Gynecology and Center of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Technical University of Munich (TUM), TUM School of Medicine and Health, Klinikum rechts der Isar, TUM University Hospital, Munich, Germany.ORCID 0009-0008-6596-128X Cornelia MeiselDepartment of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8201-6377 Dennis WittInstitute of Medical Genetics and Applied Genomics, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-8485-4860 Yasmin MehraeinInstitute of Human Genetics, University Medical Center Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.ORCID 0009-0004-0893-3988 Dorothee SpeiserDepartment of Gynecology with Breast Center, Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Center, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-6447-629X Juliane HoyerInstitute of Human Genetics, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), Erlangen, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9368-0767 Gesine Faigle-KrehlInstitute for Human Genetics, University Medical Center Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8056-8119 Christiane D MuchDepartment of Human Genetics, University Medicine Greifswald and Interfaculty Institute of Genetics and Functional Genomics, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.ORCID 0009-0003-5397-647X Alma-Verena Müller-RauschDepartment of Gynecology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.ORCID 0009-0008-2974-3883 Pablo Villavicencio-LoriniMVZ University Hospital Halle gGmbH & Institute of Human Genetics, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, University Medicine Halle, Halle, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4906-1539 Daniel PiehInstitute of Human Genetics, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Mainz, Germany.ORCID 0009-0007-7871-0570 Rita K SchmutzlerCenter for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Center for Integrated Oncology (CIO), Medical Faculty, University Hospital Cologne, Cologne, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-8160-4348 Christine Fischer *Institute of Human Genetics, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-2144-5039 Christoph Engel *Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics, and Epidemiology (IMISE), Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-7247-282X Funding
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) 01GY1901Deutsche Krebshilfe (German Cancer Aid) 110837
6 · The paper itselfAbstract
The German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (GC-HBOC) has successfully implemented risk-adapted breast cancer surveillance for women at high breast cancer risk in Germany. Women with a family history of breast and ovarian cancer but without pathogenic germline variants in recognized breast cancer risk genes are recommended annual breast imaging if their predicted 10-year breast cancer risk is 5% or higher, using the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) breast cancer risk model, as outlined in the current GC-HBOC guideline. However, women who initially do not meet this risk threshold may do so later, even if there is no new cancer in their family. To determine when this threshold is crossed, one could annually repeat BOADICEA calculations using an aging pedigree: the "prediction by aging pedigree" (AP) approach. Alternatively, we propose a simplified and more practical "'conditional probability" (CP) approach, which calculates future risks based on the initial BOADICEA assessment. Using data from 6,661 women registered with GC-HBOC, both methods were compared. Initially, 74% of women, ages 30 to 48 years, had a 10-year breast cancer risk below 5%, but 53% exceeded this threshold at an older age based on the AP approach. Among the women with an initial risk below the threshold, the CP approach revealed that 99% of women exceeded the 5% threshold at the same or an earlier age compared with the AP approach (88% of cases were within the same year or 1 year earlier). The CP approach has been implemented as a user-friendly web application. Prevention Relevance: The German Consortium for Hereditary Breast Cancer recommends annual breast imaging for women if their 10-year breast cancer risk is 5% or higher. Women who initially do not meet this risk threshold may do so later. We propose a simple method to determine future risks based on initial risk assessments.
Indexed as
Breast NeoplasmsEarly Detection of CancerAdultAgedAlgorithmsFemaleGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGermanyHumansIncidenceMiddle AgedPedigreeRisk AssessmentRisk Factors
Identifiers
PMID39575650
PMCPMC11788646
What OpenQuestion holds
Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390