Impact of climate and land use on the temporal variability of sand fly density in Sri Lanka: A 2-year longitudinal study.

backgroundLeishmaniasis has emerged as an escalating public health problem in Sri Lanka, with reported cases increasing nearly three folds over past decade, from 1,367 in 2014 to 3714 cases in 2023. Phlebotominae sand flies are the vectors of leishmaniasis. Their density is known to be influenced by context-specific climatic and land use patterns. Thus, we aimed to investigate how these factors drive sand fly density across Sri Lanka. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL

findingsWe analysed monthly collections of sand flies (n = 38,594) and weather data from ten sentinel sites representing three main geo-climatic zones across Sri Lanka, over 24 months. Site-specific land use data was also recorded. The influence of climate and land use patterns on sand fly density across the sentinel sites were estimated using distributed lag non-linear models and machine learning. We found that climate played a major role on sand fly density compared to land use structure. Increase in rainfall and relative humidity at real time, and ambient temperature and soil temperature with a 2-month lag were associated with a statistically significant increase in sand fly density. The maximum relative risk (RR) observed was 3.76 (95% CI: 1.58-8.96) for rainfall at 120 mm/month, 2.14 (95% CI: 1.04-4.38) for relative humidity at 82% (both at real time). The maximum RR was 2.81 (95% CI: 1.09-7.35) for ambient temperature at 34.5°C, and 11.6 (95% CI, 4.38-30.76) for soil temperature (both at a 2-month lag). The real-time increase in ambient temperature, sunshine hours, and evaporation rate, however, reduced sand fly density homogeneously in all study settings. The high density of chena and coconut plantations, together with low density of dense forests, homesteads, and low human footprint values, positively influenced sand fly density. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The findings improve our understanding of the dynamic influence of environment on sand fly densities and spread of leishmaniasis. This knowledge lays a foundation for forecasting of sand fly densities and designing targeted interventions for mitigating the growing burden of leishmaniasis among the most vulnerable populations, particularly in an era of changing climate.