Power calculation for mosquito bioassays: Quantifying variability in the WHO tube bioassay and developing sample size guidance for the PBO synergism assay using a Shiny application.

Background: The WHO tube bioassay is a method for exposing mosquitos to determine susceptibility to insecticides, with mortality to discriminating doses <98% indicating possible resistance and <90% confirming resistance. This bioassay is also used for synergism testing to assess if susceptibility is restored by pre-exposure to the synergist piperonyl butoxide. Methods: Here we perform testing with pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant Results: We show that approximately two-thirds of variation occurs between days, with the pyrethroid-susceptible strain twice as variable as the pyrethroid-resistant strain. The total number of mosquitoes in the tube and their bodyweight contributes to approximately 10% of this variability. Changes in temperature and humidity, within a climate-controlled insectary, didn't impact mortality. Using a simulation-based framework, we show that the current synergism guidelines, using a 4x4 design, can reliably detect a difference between 90% and 100% mortality (>90% power). However, as the mortality of either group gets closer to 50%, a 10% difference between groups is more difficult to reliably detect. In the worst-case scenario where the mortality of either group is 50%, the mortality difference must be >22.5% to be detected with 80% power. We provide an R shiny application to assess power for other comparisons. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that detecting synergism with the WHO tube assay is more difficult than assumed by the current WHO guidelines. Additionally, we demonstrate the value of using a Shiny application to make the outputs of simulation-based power analysis readily available to end-users, allowing them to determine the number of tubes needed to detect a given mortality difference.