Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39562521›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of animal ecology2025

Reproductive success and offspring survival decline for female elephant seals past prime age.

Allison R Payne, Max F Czapanskiy, A Marm Kilpatrick, Patrick W Robinson, Cara M O Munro, Kelli Ong, Adrien Bastidas, Alegra O Negrete, Brecken Theders, Bryn Stillwell and 12 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of animal ecology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Allison R PayneDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0001-6107-4252
Max F CzapanskiyDepartment of Ocean Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6302-905X
A Marm KilpatrickDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3612-5775
Patrick W RobinsonDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3957-8347
Cara M O MunroDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0005-6971-8509
Kelli OngDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.
Adrien BastidasDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.
Alegra O NegreteDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.
Brecken ThedersDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0003-3056-5221
Bryn StillwellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0006-9021-6527
Danissa CoffeyDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7032-130X
Elijah SchweitzerDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0000-3998-5650
Elise BaughDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0002-2849-2441
Jasmine SalazarDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.
Keenan Chau-PechDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.
Mason RodriguesDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.
Mimi ChavezDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0000-0789-7314
Savanna WrightDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.
Sofia RivasDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0000-0707-0333
Joanne ReiterInstitute of Marine Sciences, Long Marine Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0009-1215-940X
Daniel P CostaDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0233-5782
Roxanne S BeltranDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8520-1105

Funding

Arnold and Mabel Beckman FoundationDavid and Lucile Packard FoundationDivision of Integrative Organismal Systems 2052497National Science FoundationOffice of Naval ResearchSloan Foundation Census of Marine Life
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Maternal age can influence reproductive success and offspring fitness, but the timing, magnitude and direction of those impacts are not well understood. Evolutionary theory predicts that selection on fertility senescence is stronger than maternal effect senescence, and therefore, the rate of maternal effect senescence will be faster than fertility senescence. We used a 36-year study of northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) to investigate reproductive senescence. Our dataset included 103,746 sightings of 1203 known-age female northern elephant seals. We hypothesized that fertility (maternal reproductive success), offspring survival and recruitment into the breeding population, and male offspring production would decline with advanced maternal age. Furthermore, we hypothesized that older females would shorten their moulting haul out to allow for more time spent foraging. We found evidence for both fertility and maternal effect senescence, but no evidence for senescence impacting offspring recruitment or sex ratio. Breeding probability declined from 96.4% (95% CI: 94.8%-97.5%) at 11 years old to 89.7% (81.9%-94.3%) at 19 years old, and the probability of offspring survival declined from 30.3% (23.6%-38.0%) at 11 years old to 9.1% (3.2%-22.9%) at 19 years old. The rates of decline for fertility and maternal effect senescence were not different from each other. However, maternal effect senescence had a substantially greater impact on the number of offspring surviving to age 1 compared to fertility senescence. Compared to a hypothetical non-senescent population, maternal effect senescence resulted in 5.3% fewer surviving pups, whereas fertility senescence resulted in only 0.3% fewer pups produced per year. These results are consistent with evolutionary theory predicting weaker selection on maternal effect than fertility senescence. Maternal effect senescence may therefore be more influential on population dynamics than fertility senescence in some systems.

Indexed as

AgingLongevityReproductionSeals, EarlessAnimalsFemaleFertilityMaleMaternal Ageageinglife historymarine mammalmaternal effectphenologysenescencesex ratio

Identifiers

PMID39562521
PMCPMC11880645

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.