ArticleThe Journal of animal ecology2025
Long-term multi-species demographic studies reveal divergent negative impacts of winter storms on seabird survival.
Article in The Journal of animal ecology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Cumulative Early-Life Adversities Predict Short- and Long-Term Survival in aEcology and evolution · 2026Article
- Extreme weather effects on marine predator breeding outcomes in a global climate change hotspot.Science advances · 2026Article
- Signals From the Southern Edge: Demographic Effects of Ocean Warming on Two Cold-Adapted Seabird Species in the Gulf of Maine.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Unusual Mass Mortality of Atlantic Puffins (Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Long-term multi-species demographic studies reveal divergent negative impacts of winter storms on seabird survival.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding storm impacts on marine vertebrate demography requires detailed meteorological data in tandem with long-term population monitoring. Yet most studies use storm proxies such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), potentially obfuscating a mechanistic understanding of current and future risk. Here, we investigate the impact of extratropical cyclones by extracting north Atlantic winter storm characteristics (storm number, intensity, clustering and wave conditions) and relating these with long-term overwinter adult survival of three long-lived sympatric seabirds which winter at sea-common guillemot Uria aalge, Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica and razorbill Alca torda. We used multidecadal mark-recapture analysis (1970s-2020s) to estimate survival while correcting for resighting probability, combined with spatially explicit environmental data from geolocation-derived wintering areas, to determine the impact of different storm characteristics (i.e., number, intensity, duration, gap between storms, wave height and wind speed), as well as broad-scale climatic conditions (NAOI and sea surface temperature [SST]). All three species experienced rapid population growth over the study period. Guillemot and razorbill survival was lower during stormier winters, with an additive effect of summer SST for guillemots, and a negative interaction with population size for razorbills. Puffin survival was negatively correlated with winter SST, and the lowest puffin survival coincided with intense winter storms and a large seabird wreck in 2013/14. The number of days with wind speed >30 and 35 ms
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