Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39556760›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2024

Global trends in antibiotic consumption during 2016-2023 and future projections through 2030.

Eili Y Klein, Isabella Impalli, Suprena Poleon, Philippe Denoel, Mariateresa Cipriano, Thomas P Van Boeckel, Simone Pecetta, David E Bloom, Arindam Nandi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 150 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
150citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

150 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  10. Evolution, Mechanisms, and Therapeutic Implications of Mobile Tetracycline Destructases.BioEssays : news and reviews in molecular, cellular and developmental biology · 2026
    Review
  11. Climate change and antimicrobial resistance.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026
    Review
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90 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Eili Y KleinOne Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015.ORCID 0000-0002-1304-5289
Isabella ImpalliOne Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015.ORCID 0009-0004-6596-4908
Suprena PoleonOne Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015.
Philippe DenoelGSK, Vaccines R&D, Rixensart 1330, Belgium.ORCID 0009-0001-9863-6685
Mariateresa CiprianoGSK, Vaccines R&D, Siena 53100, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-6644-7137
Thomas P Van BoeckelOne Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015.
Simone PecettaGSK, Vaccines R&D, Siena 53100, Italy.
David E BloomHarvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115.
Arindam NandiOne Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015.ORCID 0000-0002-3967-2424

Funding

Agricultural ResearchAll Russian Research Institute for Animal BreedingArab Centre for Studies of Arid and Dry LandsSonia Zakizadeh from the Animal Science Research Institute of Iran
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Antibiotic resistance is a global public health threat. Many factors contribute to this issue, with human antibiotic consumption being significant among them. Analyzing trends and patterns in consumption can aid in developing policies to mitigate the burden of antimicrobial resistance and global disparities in access to antibiotics. Using pharmaceutical sales data licensed from IQVIA, we estimate national-level trends in antibiotic consumption in 67 countries during 2016-2023 and analyze the effects of economic growth and the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we estimate global human consumption and project growth through 2030 assuming current trends. We find that estimated antibiotic consumption in reported countries increased 16.3% from 29.5 to 34.3 billion defined daily doses (DDDs) from 2016 to 2023, reflecting a 10.6% increase in the consumption rate from 13.7 to 15.2 DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants per day. Increases were most pronounced in upper-middle- and lower-middle-income countries. While the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced consumption globally, this was most pronounced in high-income countries, and in these countries, reductions in antibiotic use in 2020 were sharper, and lasted longer, than in other countries. By 2030, we project that, without reductions in rapidly developing nations, such as investments to improve infrastructure, particularly water and sanitation, along with improved access to vaccination, global antibiotic consumption will increase by 52.3% from an estimated 49.3 billion in 2023 to 75.1 billion DDDs.

Indexed as

Anti-Bacterial AgentsCOVID-19Global HealthDrug Resistance, MicrobialForecastingHumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Anti-Bacterial AgentsAMRantibiotic resistanceantimicrobial resistanceglobal public health

Identifiers

PMID39556760
PMCPMC11626136

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.