ArticleOphthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists)2025
Cross-population validation of the PreMO risk indicator for predicting myopia onset in children.
Article in Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Influence of environmental, economic, dietary, and behavioural factors on high myopia onset in children: a 4-year large-scale cohort study.Journal of global health · 2026Article
- Development of a deep learning model to predict cycloplegic myopia and pre- myopia: based on a large-scale screening of school-aged children.Eye (London, England) · 2026Article
- Identifying and Managing Pre-Myopia: A Narrative Review.Clinical ophthalmology (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2026Review
- Factors predicting myopia incidence in China and Europe.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2025Article
- IMI-2025 Digest.Investigative ophthalmology & visual science · 2025Article
- IMI-Interventions for Controlling Myopia Onset and Progression 2025.Investigative ophthalmology & visual science · 2025Review
- School-level prediction and management of myopia in children and adolescents.Journal of translational medicine · 2025Article
- Myopia Development During Transition From Kindergarten to Early Grades in Elementary School: Population-Based Evidence From an Epidemic Area in Taiwan.Investigative ophthalmology & visual science · 2025Article
- Cross-population validation of the PreMO risk indicator for predicting myopia onset in children.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2025Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
purposeThe Predicting Myopia Onset and progression (PreMO) risk indicator, developed using data generated from white children in the UK, incorporates age, spherical equivalent refraction (SER), axial length (AL) and parental myopia to stratify the likelihood of developing myopia. This study evaluated the PreMO's predictive accuracy using prospective datasets from independent samples of children in Hong Kong (HK) and an ethnically diverse cohort of children in the United Kingdom.
methodsNon-myopic children (SER > -0.50 D) aged 6-8 and 9-10 years were scored using the PreMO risk indicator framework, integrating baseline cycloplegic SER, AL and parental myopia data. Scores were assigned risk categories as follows: 0 = no risk, 1-3 = low risk, 4-6 = moderate risk and 7-9 = high risk. SER at ≥15 years of age was used to define refractive outcomes as 'myopic' or 'not myopic'. PreMO's predictive accuracy was analysed via Receiver Operator Characteristic curves, with Youden's J-Index identifying the optimal risk score threshold. Sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve were determined and compared with those of singular predictors, that is, SER < +0.75 D and AL ≥ 23.07 mm at 6-8 years.
resultsIn the cohort of children aged 6-8 years, a PreMO risk score ≥ 4 exhibited high sensitivity in predicting myopia onset in UK (0.97) and HK (0.94) children, with high specificity in UK (0.96) and moderate specificity in HK (0.64) children. In UK children aged 6-8 years, the PreMO outperformed singular predictors such as SER and AL. Among HK children aged 9-10 years, the PreMO score maintained high sensitivity (0.90) and moderate specificity (0.72).
conclusionsA PreMO risk score ≥ 4 is a strong predictive indicator for future myopia onset, particularly in UK children. Despite high sensitivity in both UK and HK cohorts, specificity varied, indicating the need for contextual application of the tool, particularly in pre-myopic Asian children.
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