Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39552607›Full record

Trial reportEuropean journal of clinical investigation2025

Machine learning for stroke in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction but without atrial fibrillation: A post-hoc analysis of the WARCEF trial.

Hironori Ishiguchi, Yang Chen, Bi Huang, Ying Gue, Elon Correa, Shunichi Homma, John L P Thompson, Min Qian, Gregory Y H Lip, Azmil H Abdul-Rahim

Abstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in European journal of clinical investigation, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Trial
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Hironori IshiguchiLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
Yang ChenLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2808-6286
Bi HuangLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
Ying GueLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9994-8915
Elon CorreaLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
Shunichi HommaColumbia University Medical Center, New York, USA.
John L P ThompsonColumbia University Medical Center, New York, USA.
Min QianColumbia University Medical Center, New York, USA.
Gregory Y H LipLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
Azmil H Abdul-RahimLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1318-4027

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe prediction of ischaemic stroke in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) but without atrial fibrillation (AF) remains challenging. Our aim was to evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) in identifying the development of ischaemic stroke in this population.

methodsWe performed a post-hoc analysis of the WARCEF trial, only including patients without a history of AF. We evaluated the performance of 9 ML models for identifying incident stroke using metrics including area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis. The importance of each feature used in the model was ranked by SAPley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values.

resultsWe included 2213 patients with HFrEF but without AF (mean age 58 ± 11 years; 80% male). Of these, 74 (3.3%) had an ischaemic stroke in sinus rhythm during a mean follow-up of 3.3 ± 1.8 years. Out of the 29 patient-demographics variables, 12 were selected for the ML training. Almost all ML models demonstrated high AUC values, outperforming the CHA

conclusionsMachine-learning models can be useful in identifying incident ischaemic strokes in patients with HFrEF but without AF. CrCl, BUN and warfarin use were the key features.

Indexed as

Heart FailureIschemic StrokeMachine LearningStrokeAgedArea Under CurveAtrial FibrillationBlood Urea NitrogenFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedStroke VolumeSupport Vector Machineheart failure with reduced ejection fractionmachine learningstroke

Identifiers

PMID39552607
PMCPMC11810539

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.