ArticleScientific reports2024
A decomposition study on the factors influencing China's total fertility rate changes between 1990 and 2020.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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9 citing papers in PubMed.
- [Research progress on intelligent brain age prediction methods in diagnosis of Parkinson's disease].Sheng wu yi xue gong cheng xue za zhi = Journal of biomedical engineering = Shengwu yixue gongchengxue zazhi · 2026Review
- Current status of cesarean section in secondary maternal and child health hospitals under new fertility policies: using the Robson classification system.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2026Article
- The Impact of Sociodemographic Factors on Job Insecurity Among Obstetric Nurses Under the Low Fertility Background: A Linear Mixed-Effects Model Analysis and Targeted Intervention Strategies.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2026Article
- Differentiation of fertility attitudes and its influencing factors among married reproductive-aged women: an empirical analysis in Shandong Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- City-level GDP estimates for China under alternative pathways from 2020 to 2100.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Evolution of physician resources in China (2003-2021): quantity, quality, structure, and geographic distribution.Human resources for health · 2025Article
- Fertility intentions in the era of the new three-child policy in China: a cross-sectional survey of married adults of reproductive age.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Effect of "universal two-child" policy on population changes in Shandong province, China: an interrupted time series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- The burden and trends of infectious diseases among children aged 14 and below in China from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis from the 2021 global burden of disease study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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Abstract
Low fertility is not conducive to healthy population development. The total fertility rate (TFR) is influenced by the education expansion (measured by the proportion of non-student women, NSP), marriage delay (measured by the proportion of married women, MP), and marital fertility rate (MFR). This study decomposes the TFR change into the changes in NSP, MP, and MFR using China's census and 1% population sample survey data. During 1990-2020, the changes in NSP, MP, and MFR contributed - 22%, - 90%, and 12%, respectively, to the changes in TFR. The continuous decline in NSP reduced the TFR, and the intensity continued to increase over time. As the primary negative driving force, the rapid decline in MP also consistently reduced the TFR. The marital fertility rate had a downward effect on the TFR before 2000 and an upward effect after 2000. The effects of NSP, MP, and MFR on the TFR varied with the birth order, age and region (among cities, towns, and villages). In summary, China's TFR has considerably changed in combination with changes in NSP, MP, and MFR. Without effective measures, China's TFR may further decline into the lowest-low fertility trap.
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