ArticleFrontiers in public health2024
Projected number of people in need for long-term care in Germany until 2050.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- APOSCREEN-1 - a prospective, single-arm clinical trial for the implementation of a pharmacy-based screening for cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic risk factors in Schleswig-Holstein.BMC nephrology · 2026Trial
- [Physical activity promotion among older adults in community settings: structures, implementation barriers and the role of political narratives].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2026Review
- How does the level of care change after proximal humeral fracture in older patients? A propensity score matching analysis.European geriatric medicine · 2026Article
- Incidence and remission of endometriosis in Germany based on prevalence data from 35 million patients from the statutory health insurance.BMC women's health · 2026Article
- Excess mortality of German men and women aged 60 years and older needing long-term care 2020-2024: data from a statutory health insurance comprising more than 3 million people.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- The Future Dynamics of Long-Term Care Pressure in China's Longevity Era: A Prediction Based on the Discrete-Time Markov Model.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Projected number of people in need for long-term care in Germany until 2050.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Introduction: Current demographic trends predict continuously growing numbers of individuals reliant on care, which has to be accounted for in future planning of long-term care-resources. The projection of developments becomes especially necessary in order to enable healthcare systems to cope with this future burden and to implement suitable strategies to deal with the demand of long-term care. This study aimed to project the prevalence of long-term care and the number of care-dependent people in Germany until 2050. Methods: We used the illness-death model to project the future prevalence of long-term care in Germany until 2050 considering eight different scenarios. Therefore, transition rates (incidence rate and mortality rates) describing the illness-death model are needed, which have been studied recently. Absolute numbers of people in need for long-term care were calculated based to the 15th population projection of the Federal Statistical Office. Results: Numbers of people in need for long-term care will increase by at least 12%, namely 5.6 million people, in the period of 2021 until 2050. Assuming an annual incidence-increase of 2% from 2021 to 2050 the number of care-dependent individuals could potentially rise up to 14 million (+180%). Conclusion: Our projections indicated a substantial rise in the number of care-dependent individuals. This is expected to lead to raising economic challenges as well as a stronger demand for healthcare and nursing personnel.
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