Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39537241›Full record

SynthesisEuropean respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society2024

Predicting paediatric asthma exacerbations with machine learning: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

Martina Votto, Annalisa De Silvestri, Lorenzo Postiglione, Maria De Filippo, Sara Manti, Stefania La Grutta, Gian Luigi Marseglia, Amelia Licari

Abstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. The evolution of scientific knowledge in childhood asthma over time.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2026
    Review
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Review
  10. Multimodal EHR-Based Prediction of Pediatric Asthma Exacerbations.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Preparing Allergists to Practice in 2050 Using Artificial Intelligence.The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice · 2025
    Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Pediatrics 4.0: the Transformative Impacts of the Latest Industrial Revolution on Pediatrics.Health care analysis : HCA : journal of health philosophy and policy · 2025
    Article
  19. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Martina VottoPediatric Unit, Department of Clinical, Surgical, Diagnostic and Pediatric Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
Annalisa De SilvestriBiometry and Clinical Epidemiology, Scientific Direction, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy.
Lorenzo PostiglionePediatric Unit, Department of Clinical, Surgical, Diagnostic and Pediatric Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
Maria De FilippoPediatric Unit, Department of Clinical, Surgical, Diagnostic and Pediatric Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy maria.defilippo01@universitadipavia.it.
Sara MantiPediatric Unit, Department of Human Pathology in Adult and Developmental Age "Gaetano Barresi", University of Messina, Messina, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7664-3083
Stefania La GruttaInstitute of Translational Pharmacology (IFT), National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Palermo, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8026-0715
Gian Luigi MarsegliaPediatric Unit, Department of Clinical, Surgical, Diagnostic and Pediatric Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
Amelia LicariPediatric Unit, Department of Clinical, Surgical, Diagnostic and Pediatric Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1773-6482

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAsthma exacerbations in children pose a significant burden on healthcare systems and families. While traditional risk assessment tools exist, artificial intelligence (AI) offers the potential for enhanced prediction models.

objectiveThis study aims to systematically evaluate and quantify the performance of machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting the risk of hospitalisation and emergency department (ED) admission for acute asthma exacerbations in children.

methodsWe performed a systematic review with meta-analysis, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The risk of bias and applicability for eligible studies was assessed according to the prediction model study risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). The protocol of our systematic review was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews.

resultsOur meta-analysis included seven articles encompassing a total of 17 ML-based prediction models. We found a pooled area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67 (95% CI 0.61-0.73; I

conclusionThis study provides the most comprehensive assessment of AI-based algorithms in predicting paediatric asthma exacerbations to date. While these models show promise and ML-based hospitalisation prediction models, in particular, demonstrate good accuracy, further external validation is needed before these models can be reliably implemented in real-life clinical practice.

Indexed as

AsthmaDisease ProgressionEmergency Service, HospitalHospitalizationMachine LearningPredictive Value of TestsAdolescentAge FactorsChildChild, PreschoolDecision Support TechniquesFemaleHumansMalePatient AdmissionPrognosis

Identifiers

PMID39537241
PMCPMC11558535

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.