ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2024
Development of a prognostic model to predict 90-day mortality in hospitalised cancer patients (PROMISE tool): a prospective observational study.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07490106 (Benefits of Early Collaboration Between Oncologists and Palliative Care Physicians in Cases of Unplanned Hospitalization for Patients With Metastatic Cancer), which is not on this map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Benefits of Early Collaboration Between Oncologists and Palliative Care Physicians in Cases of Unplanned Hospitalization for Patients With Metastatic Cancer
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Development and validation of simplified prognostic models for 14- and 30-day mortality in advanced cancer: beyond the glasgow prognostic score.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Article
- Advancing prognostic precision in unplanned oncology admissions: the promise of the PROMISE-CTI score.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
- Prediction of 90-day mortality among cancer patients with unplanned hospitalisation: a retrospective validation study of three prognostic scores.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
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42 authors.
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Abstract
Background: Prognostic factors for ambulatory oncology patients have been described, including Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG), tumor stage and malnutrition. However, there is no firm evidence on which variables best predict mortality in hospitalized patients receiving active systemic treatment. Our main goal was to develop a predictive model for 90-day mortality upon admission. Methods: Between 2020 and 2022, we prospectively collected data from three sites for cancer patients with hospitalizations. Those with metastatic disease receiving systemic therapy in the 6 months before unplanned admission were eligible to this study. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to select the most relevant factors to predict 90-day mortality at admission. A multivariable logistic regression was fitted to create the PROgnostic Score for Hospitalized Cancer Patients (PROMISE) score. The score was developed in a single-center training cohort and externally validated. Findings: Of 1658 hospitalized patients, 1009 met eligibility criteria. Baseline demographics, patient and disease characteristics were similar across cohorts. Lung cancer was the most common tumor type in both cohorts. Factors associated with higher 90-day mortality included worse ECOG, stable/progressive disease, low levels of albumin, increased absolute neutrophil count, and high lactate dehydrogenase. The c-index after bootstrap correction was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75-0.82) and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.80) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. A web tool (https://promise.vhio.net/) was developed to facilitate the clinical deployment of the model. Interpretation: The PROMISE tool demonstrated high performance for identifying metastatic cancer patients who are alive 90 days after an unplanned hospitalization. This will facilitate healthcare providers with rational clinical decisions and care planning after discharge. Funding: Merck S.L.U., Spain.
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