ArticleDrug and alcohol dependence2024
An investigation of multimodal predictors of adolescent alcohol initiation.
Article in Drug and alcohol dependence, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- The ABCD Study at 10: The NIH perspective on progress, impact, and the road ahead.Developmental cognitive neuroscience · 2026Article
- Risk calculation circuit abnormalities plus psychosocial risk variables predict problematic substance use in youth with externalizing disorders.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2026Article
- Divergent Pathways Taken in Adolescence Predict Embracing or Resisting Moderate-to-Heavy Drinking in Young Adulthood.Biological psychiatry. Cognitive neuroscience and neuroimaging · 2026Article
- Environmental, Health, and Psychological Factors Predict Alcohol Sipping in Childhood: A Machine Learning Analysis of the ABCD Study.JAACAP open · 2025Article
- Socioemotional and Executive Control Mismatch in Adolescence and Risks for Initiating Drinking.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Structural Covariance Network Properties Predictive of Early Adolescent Alcohol Initiation.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundEarly alcohol initiation is associated with negative, alcohol-related outcomes. While previous work identifies numerous risk factors for early use, the relative contributions of known predictors remains understudied. The current project addresses this gap by 1) prospectively predicting early alcohol initiation using measures of inhibition control, reward sensitivity, and contextual risk factors and 2) interrogating the relative importance of each domain.
methodThis study leverages multimodal data from substance-naïve youth enrolled in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study® (n=11,694). Early initiation was defined as consuming a full standard drink containing alcohol prior to age 16. Propensity scores were used to match alcohol initiators (n=348) with demographically similar non-initiators at a 1:2 ratio (n=696). Independent logistic regressions were conducted for each domain followed by additive, hierarchical models.
resultsThe model of contextual factors (pseudo-R
conclusionContextual risk factors were the strongest predictors of early alcohol use; however, more work is needed to understand the causal nature of this relationship. Measures of inhibition control and reward sensitivity were not adequate in distinguishing initiators from non-initiators. These findings add to a body of evidence that contextual factors play a major role in alcohol initiation while highlighting specific predictor variables that could inform youth alcohol prevention.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.