Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39522169›Full record

ArticleEuropace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology2024

Refining the CHA2DS2VASc risk stratification scheme: shall we drop the sex category criterion?

Hiroyuki Yoshimura, Rui Providencia, Chris Finan, Amand Floriaan Schmidt, Gregory Y H Lip

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Clinical outcomes of continuing vs. discontinuing oral anticoagulation after atrial fibrillation ablation: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies and randomized controlled trials.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Pooled it
  2. Women with persistent atrial fibrillation need more than pulmonary vein isolation: personalised extra-pulmonary vein ablation strategy vs. pulmonary vein isolation alone in the TAILORED-AF trial.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Trial
  3. Risks of discontinuation of anticoagulation after atrial fibrillation ablation in high-risk patients.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Article
  4. Review
  5. Diversity, equity, and inclusion in arrhythmia care: a European Heart Rhythm Association survey.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Article
  6. Female sex-related stroke risk in patients with atrial flutter-comparison between CHA2DS2-VA and CHA2DS2-VASc scores.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Article
  7. Adverse events after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: a comprehensive nationwide cohort study.Journal of interventional cardiac electrophysiology : an international journal of arrhythmias and pacing · 2026
    Article
  8. Observational
  9. Review
  10. Review
  11. CHAFrontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2026
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Sex differences in the initiation of antithrombotic therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation in Germany.Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society · 2025
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Observational
  17. How much does elective cardioversion increase the risk of ischaemic stroke compared to the baseline risk in atrial fibrillation? A nationwide study.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Article
  18. Review
  19. Review
  20. Timing of stroke risk reassessment in atrial fibrillation patients with a CHA2DS2-VA score of 0 or 1: the Norwegian AFNOR study.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Hiroyuki YoshimuraInstitute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London NW1 2DA, UK.ORCID 0009-0009-1991-5001
Rui ProvidenciaInstitute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London NW1 2DA, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9141-9883
Chris FinanInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3319-1937
Amand Floriaan SchmidtInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1327-0424
Gregory Y H LipLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7566-1626

Funding

AFFIRMOEuropean Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme 899871National Institute for Health and Care Researchsenior investigatorUniversity College London British Heart Foundation Research AA/18/6/34223
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsThe CHA2DS2VASc score is recommended for stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). This score assigns one extra point to female sex based on evidence from the early 2000s, suggesting higher thromboembolic risk in women. This incremental risk of thromboembolism in women has decreased over time between 2007 and 2018, becoming non-significant in recent years. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of removing the sex category (Sc) from the CHA2DS2VASc score, thus validating a non-sex CHA2DS2VASc (i.e. CHA2DS2VA) score. METHODS AND

resultsWe analysed UK primary and secondary care data comprising 195 719 patients with AF followed between 1998 and 2016 (mean age: 75.9 ± 12.3 years; 49.2% women). Among 126 428 non-anticoagulated patients, we compared the CHA2DS2VASc vs. CHA2DS2VA scores every calendar year. Throughout 413 007 patient-years, a total of 8742 events of ischaemic stroke or systemic embolism were recorded. Sex differences in thromboembolic risk were not observed in the lower-risk population, but higher stroke rates were consistently seen in female patients in the higher-risk category (i.e. CHA2DS2VA ≥2). C-statistics for both CHA2DS2VA and CHA2DS2VASc scores were similar over the years (ranging from 0.62 to 0.71). With CHA2DS2VA, no relevant differences were observed in integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) resulted in improved reclassification (11%) in lower thromboembolic risk groups. The NRI suggested misclassification in higher thromboembolic risk patients (-7%), but this did not affect their indication for anticoagulation (i.e. patients retained their high-risk status).

conclusionRemoving Sc from the CHA2DS2VASc score does not affect its ability to discriminate thromboembolic events in the population with AF. The use of CHA2DS2VA may simplify initial decision-making for thromboprophylaxis.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationThromboembolismAgedAged, 80 and overAnticoagulantsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSex FactorsStrokeUnited KingdomAnticoagulantsAtrial fibrillationElectronic health recordsThromboembolic risk predictionThromboembolic risk stratification score

Identifiers

PMID39522169
PMCPMC11574618

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.